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So, Friday dollar pique in the thin celebratory market was unexpected for many participants of the market. We remind that volumes of trading operations last day of the week were minimal, that is connected with the Thanksgiving Day on the eve and the reduced working day in the USA on Friday.
Let's remind that a fundamental impulse of growth of the basic currencies against the dollar became rather high rates of economic growth in Europe (12), and also, connected with it the increased probability of rise in ECB interest rates at the subsequent meetings.
Inflationary parameters in Germany were also above forecasts - one of leading economy of Europe (12), that also speaks in favor of toughening a credit policy in a zone of euro.
So, preliminary value of a consumer price index in Germany for October made -0.1 % for a month, +1.5 % for a year, at the forecast -0.2 % for a month, +1.4 % for a year, the previous value of +0.1 % for a month, +1.1 % for a year.
And preliminary value of the harmonized consumer price index in Germany for October made +1.5 % for a year, at the forecast of +1.4 % for a year, the previous value of +1.1 % for a year.
In this connection forex players considered seriously statement of the economic adviser of the German government Beatrice Veder di Mauro who declared in interview to Reuters agency that euro strengthening or the further toughening of a monetary policy by the European central bank will not lead to delay of German economy.
In Beatrice Veder di Mauro’s opinion, rates are still not at a neutral level and the general risks for price stability are kept.
Pointing out these risks, the adviser emphasized: "In this sense, I undoubtedly see space for the further increases of interest rates".
Let's remind that now experts forecast that the European central bank will raise the refinancing rate up to 3.50 % peer annum from current 3.25 % at meeting on December, 7th. It is remarkable that till now ECB representatives have not denied any way these expectations of the market’s players.
Moreover, verbal support of a rate of euro from some European officials amplifies. For example, on last Wednesday ECB Governing Council member Klaus Libsher said that the euro in the future could argue with the dollar as the international currency.
Klaus Libsher also added that euro, taking the second place after the dollar as reserve currency, is more widely used in international trade and investments.
Besides Libsher added that economy of the countries of a zone of euro is now in conditions of a low rate of inflation, low interest rates and stable inflationary expectations.
Besides euro and other basic currencies rise against the dollar was strengthened by technical signals which specify overcoming of the important levels, and also work of a plenty protective stop-orders, located at key levels of resistance: 1.3000 for euro/dollar, 1.2200 for dollar/franc, 116.00 for dollar/yen.
A rate of the American dollar is also under pressure of the speculations concerning a theme of possible partial transfer of currency assets of some central banks from American in other world currencies.
So, players paid attention to the representative of the central bank of United Arab Emirates who last week acted with the forecast in such areas as trade, investments and tourism, the nearest 10 years the euro can leave the dollar behind.
However the most sensitive for the market there were statements of representatives of the countries, possessing essential currency reserves.
Let's remind that the deputy head of department of the Government of currency regulation of China Guan Tao, pointing out necessity of diversification of parts of the assets nominated in dollars, called drop in dollar stocks because of decrease in a rate of this currency as one of the reasons to this step.
We still predict the further easing of the American currency and consequently we recommend to continue to keep the dollar/canadian sales opened at a level 1.1420.
As for the dollar/franc rate, taking inco account depth of its decrease and high probability of up correction, we recommend, being outside the market, before opening of long-term sales, to wait for growth of the pair to a level 1.2345. And, aggressive players can already begin cautious sales of a rate from a level 1.2220.
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