In the end of current short week the dollar again received significant blow after an issue of the block of news over the USA. Due to the days off on Thursday and on Friday and before the long days off in America, the usual sequence of news releases over the USA was shifted and all block of news was released today in the beginning of the American session.
Notwithstanding that data are not so important for the market, the thin market in absence of large players in holidays enabled to press upwards a strong level of resistance - a level of 1,29 dollars for 1 euro.
First of all, week data on jobless claims for November, 18th showed hike in comparison with data of the last week and analysts’ forecasts.
According to data of US Department of Labor initial jobless claims increased 12000 up to 321 000 for a week against 309 000 the last week.
4-week moving average, less volatile parameter, grew from 314 000 up to 317 thousand. For expiring current month it is the first negative data on a labor market of the USA.
Until this report since the Employment report in the beginning of month, the labor market showed not bad dynamics. High activity in the labor market gave hope for soft landing of economy in conditions of recession of industrial growth that was repeatedly mentioned in statements of FRS management as supports consumer activity of the Americans. The first negative news in this segment of economy caused an impulse of dollar sales in the thin market.
An issue of data of University of Michigan consumer sentiment also warmed negative moods concerning dollar.
According to data of research of University of Michigan, the final index of consumer confidence in November made 92.1 against final October value 93.6. In November economists expected small improvement of the index up to 93.0 from a preliminary estimation 92.3.
The index of current conditions was at a level 106.0 against 107.3 in October.
The only positive thing for the dollar today was decrease in quotations of January oil futures on NYMEX after recent correction to levels $60 a barrel.
After an issue of the EIA report on oil stocks oil prices again approached the marks close to levels $ 58 a barrel.
According to the report:
Stocks of crude oil +1.5 % for a week, +5.8 % in comparison with the similar period for the last year. Stocks of distillates -0.9%, +3.3 % in comparison with the last year.
Stocks of petroleum +0.7 % for a week, -0.8 % in comparison with the last year. Demand for petroleum +1.9 % against the similar period a year ago.
Stocks of crude oil remain "essentially above the top border of an average range". Stocks of petroleum remain "in the bottom part of an average range". Stocks of distillates remain "in the top part of an average range". Oil refining plants function with use of 87.1 % of capacities.
In spite of the fact that the euro could punch a mark 1,29 on the dollar, it is necessary to consider that the impulse of dollar sales happened on a background of the thin market. Therefore right after days off strong correction of uptrend can follow. It is also necessary to consider that next week it is expected preliminary data on dynamics of gross domestic product of the USA for the 3 quarter, and also ISM and Chicago PMI indexes. Therefore while we remain outside the market.
