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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

11:47 11/21/2006

Yesterday's tenders in forex were dull - before long days off in the USA connected with the Thanksgiving Day, many participants of the market prefer not to open new positions.

 

Besides participants of the market watch closely statements of officials – ECB representatives. So, ECB President Trichet noted that growth of world economy and in the further will be rather dynamical. Thus ECB head noted that globalization reduces world inflation, however, it is impossible to be quiet in a question of inflation.

Trichet added that it is necessary to increase flexibility of rates of exchange and ECB continues to trace carefully inflationary tendencies in the region.

 

Budesbank Head also acted with similar statements, having declared that ECB rates are at very low level. He noted that the economy of the Eurozone does not demand support of monetary policy and growth of money suooly means threat of price stability. It was noted that economic growth of the Eurozone was stabilized.

 

Another ECB representative Nicolas Gorganas who also heads the central bank of Greece, declared that the probability of wage-push in the Eurozone makes the forecast for inflation for 2008 uncertain.

"There is a lot of risk factors which disturb me, for example shortage of the offer in the labor market", - Gorganas told.

Strong economic rise and excess of demand over the offer on a labor market can support inflation at a level above 2 % in 2008, Gorganas noted.

ECB believe that a rate of inflation a little below 2 % corresponds with price stability. Concerning a current situation, economic growth "remains strong", and credit rates are still "at historically low levels", Gorganas emphasized, having added that monetary policy of ECB remains soft.

 

Similar comments increase probability of the further increase of ECB rates that gives support to the euro.

 

At the same time today a rate of yen was supported a little by the statement of the deputy director of Bank of Japan Muto that the bank can raise the level of interest rate at any time.

He did not exclude that it can happen even at December meeting of the bank.

However, at the same time experts paid attention to that according to the minutes of BOJ meeting of board of directors from October, 12-13th the members of the board consider that rates of economic rise are still moderate therefore the decision about monetary policy firming should be made quite cautiously.

 

The publication of leading indicators in the USA, which grew 0.2% in October, was practically ignored by the market.

And the index for September was revised upwardly by 0.3% from +0.1% up to +0.4%. Let’s remind that in August the index was down 0.3%. Index of coincident indicators was up 0.1%, and of lagging indicators - 0.2%.

 

Besides the situation on energy market is in the focus of attention. Let’s remind that forecasts about warm winter in the USA cause falling of oil prices.

So, crude oil price dipped as the weather in the northeastern regions of the USA is warmer than the norm. As these regions consume 80% of oil stocks of the country, used for house heating the weather led to total decrease in consumption of mazut and other mineral oil.

Distillates stocks dropped the sixth month in a row, the Department of Energy informed on November, 15th. On a week, ended on November, 10th, this drop of stocks made 6.3% more than the average value for a week.

 

According to the minister of oil industry in Kuwait if prices keep near 60$ a barrel OPEC will not reduce oil production.

If oil quotations continue their falling the probability of the next reduction will be quite high. Since November, 1st OPEC, which supplies about 40% of world oil, dropped its production by 1.2 bln. barrels a day.

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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