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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Dollar got a little support

12:55 11/21/2006

The dollar got a little support after the issue of leading indicators from the independent organization Conference Board.

 

The value of the index grew 0,2% in October vs. rise of 0,4% in September, that is in line with Bloomberg’s forecasts, made by the survey of the leading market analysts. The index made 138,3, that is a little below of the top since the beginning of a year by 139,1 in January.

 

6 0f 10 components of the index rose in October, however, slump of building permits and weakening of qualitative indicators of the production partially brought this rise to nothing.

 

The dollar got support from oil market, oil traders reduce positions of oil futures expecting increase of week oil and mineral oil stocks, data of which are published tomorrow.

 

Oil market also doubts in determination of OPEC-countries to reduce daytime quotas on oil production at the next meeting in December of this year.

 

The dollar was also supported after the publication of minutes of Bank of Japan meeting. According to this minutes the members of BOJ board of directors came to a conclusion at the meeting in October that the interest rates should be adjusted gradually, assuming that the probability of the rates’ increase in Japan in December is not great.

 

At the meeting on October, 13 members of board of directors voted for preservation of the current monetary policy without changes, referring to that current economic and financial conditions in Japan do not need immediate interference of the Central Bank.

The decision to leave the interest rates without changes was in line with expectations of the market’s participants. Taking into account the stable level of inflation in Japan and uncertainty concerning when the slowdown of economic rise in the USA will stop, it was possible to expect that the BOJ would not change the interest rates in October.

 

The board of directors declared that the real interest rate is very low concerning the real GDP growth. But they did not see any urgent necessity to raise the rates. The members of the board decided “the accommodative financial conditions continue”.

“Business investments keep rising, reflecting steady growth of home and foreign demand and high level of corporate profits”, - is said in the minutes. According to the Central Bank, strengthening of the corporate sector will spread on the households, increasing level of their incomes, and correspondingly, consumption.

 

Yesterday and today there is not observed any volatility in the market. Today there is not expected any significant news over the USA. Tomorrow, except for the report on oil stocks there are expected data on jobless claims, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. This week on Thursday markets of the USA will be closed due to the day off, therefore this short week traders will hardly be active.

 

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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