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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Friday drop in dollar against basic currencies can become first "call"...

09:22 11/20/2006

So, becoming stronger all week, despite the general negative background, on Friday the dollar nevertheless was in sales. A push for the beginning of sales were housing starts in the USA for October which showed sharp decrease not only in a parameter in comparison with the previous value, but also with economists’ forecasts.

 

So, the indicator made 1.486 million, at the forecast 1.690 million, and the previous value 1.772 million, thus building permits in the USA made 1.535 million for October, at the forecast 1.625 million, and the previous value 1.619 million.

 

Taking into account the importance of these data and also their influence on the further decisions of Federal reserve system concerning change of the basic interest rates in the first quarter of next year, the market’s participants did not lose an opportunity before the weekend to fix the long positions on the dollar rate, generated within a week.

 

It is necessary to notice that among Friday events there were the news, capable to support a rate of the American currency. However, players preferred not to notice them.

So, for example, on Friday Chicago FRB President ?????w declared that FRS will most likely need the further increase of interest rates in the USA.

Also ?????w noticed that last inflationary data are not unequivocal and it is early to celebrate a victory over inflation now.

 

It is also necessary to remind that the data published on the eve, also supported of a rate of the American currency, reducing probability of drop in the basic interest rates of Federal Reserve System in the first quarter of next year.

The volume of foreign investors purchases of the American assets in September decreased +97.1 billion dollars in comparison with the previous value up to +53.7 billion dollars, another parameter - volume of purchases of long-term assets in September is considered as more significant.

September value of the given parameter made +65.1 billion dollars, at the previous value +114.4 billion dollars. Economists point out that the volume of purchases of long-term assets in September covers the trade deficit in the USA, which made 64.3 billion dollars in September.

 

Besides a dollar exchange rate was supported against franc by anxiety concerning prospects of economic development in Switzerland. We remind that last economic data on this country were disturbing.

However many players preferred to wait before the important event of the week-end - meeting of heads of the central banks and Ministers of Finance of the countries of the Great Twenty, planned in Australia.

 

Friday decrease in a dollar exchange rate against the basic currencies can become the first "call", informing about the beginning of new, so long-felt tendency. However we recommend to wait for more precise signals of change of a trend, being outside the market.

Taking into account affinity of key levels of resistance on the majority of currency pairs, and also uncertainty from fundamental factors, it is difficult to assume with the big confidence as the market will behave in such situation.

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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