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So, yesterday's publication of the minutes of FOMC meeting from October, 24-25th to which attention of all the market’s participants was focused, did not give the reasons for the basic currency pairs leave a range.
Let's remind that in the text of the minutes it was said that economic slowdown in the third quarter was temporary and there is expected the further growth a little below potential.
Also in minutes it was noted that growth of economy though will be below than in 2006, but will be steady in 2007 and in 2008. Richmond FRB President Jeffery Lacker, abiding by his estimations of a condition of the market, again voted for the rate increase by 0.25 %.
Committee members notice that delay in housing market was significant, however did not affect consumer expenses. Thus all Committee members expressed concern about prospects of inflation, noticing its high level, but nevertheless expect that core inflation will decrease.
As a result, analyzing the text of the document, experts consider that probability of drop in a level of the basic interest rates in the USA in first half of next year as it was assumed by economists earlier, has considerably decreased.
Another important parameter – NY Empire State Index in November, having surpassed analysts’ expectations, was above predicted 15, and made 26.66. And in October the parameter made 22.92.
Thus other components of the report also showed rise. So the index of new orders in November was up 22.38 against 11.75 a month ago, the index of shipment made 26.63, having risen from 22.54, and the index of back orders made 10.24 against -1.51 earlier. The index of employment, in the meantime, grew till 24.50 from 19.39, however, inventories index increased up to 3.77 from 2.50 in October, and the paid prices index reached 34.90 against 30.83 a month earlier.
Thus the index of prospects for 6 months in November rose up to 37.76 from 30.17 in October.
Today is rich in the publication of statistical data over the USA. So, at 13:30 GMT the publication of several parameters is planned:
- Jobless claims in the USA for a week by 11.11. The forecast is 309 thousand, and the previous value was 308 thousand;
- Consumer price index in the USA for October. The forecast -0.3 % for a month, and the previous value was -0.5 % for a month, +2.1 % for a year;
- Core consumer price index in the USA for October. The forecast of +0.2 % for a month, and the previous value +0.2 % for a month, +2.9 % for a year.
And at 14:00 GMT one of key parameters of week - net foreign purchases in the USA for September will be published. The previous value +116.8 billion dollars.
A little bit later, at 14:15 GMT the index of industrial production in the USA for October will be released. The forecast of +0.2 %, the previous value was -0.6 %. And also capacity utilization in the USA for October. The forecast is 82.0, and the previous value was 81.9.
And in the end at 17:00 GMT, there will be issued Philadelphia FED index in the USA for November. The forecast 5.0, the previous value was -0.7.
We recommend to continue to keep earlier opened dollar/franc and dollar/canadian sales. The purposes of sales also hold good.


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