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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Basic driver of movement of currencies became data on inflation in Great Britain.

09:15 11/16/2006

The main object of sales on Wednesday became pound sterling, the tenders on euro were with variable successes of euro and dollar bulls.

 

The main driver of pressure of the European currencies was very weak labor market data in Great Britain.

The maximal growth of unemployment for last 5 years caused a wave of pound sales against dollar and euro.

The unemployment rate increased 1 200 up to 961 300, maximally since December 2001. However, this rise was less than value expected by economists - 5 000. The real wage level except for premiums in 3 quarter was up 3,5 %, a minimum for three years.

 

Analysts forecast delay of economic growth of Great Britain on a background of recent increase of the rate of Bank of England and deterioration of the employment market.

 

However statements from Bank of England calmed traders a little, the Executive of Bank of England Mervin King emphasized that last forecast of the Central Bank about softening of inflationary pressure is "favorable".

 

The Bank of England considers that inflation will return to a target level more quickly than it was expected three more months ago, and the basic rate of inflation will fall below 2 % if there is one more increase of the rate. The Central Bank also informed that the economy of Great Britain will develop at higher rates than it was supposed in August report.

 

In the beginning of the American session the dollar got support after the publication of NY Empire State index. The index grew up to 26.7 against 22,9 in October that became the maximal parameter since June. The parameter above zero means that the most part of manufacturers informed on improvement in business.

 

According to forecasts the index should have fallen up to 15. The index, estimating prospects for half of a year, rose up to 37,8 against 30,2, that became the most maximal level since July.

From the beginning of week the dollar was supported by oil market. Despite OPEC determination to reduce the cartel daytime quota on oil production by 1,2 billion barrels. Oil dealers expect the solving of a situation in Iraq, which led the USA into a dead end after the victory of Democrats after elections into the Congress and the Senate. A basis of the pre-election campaign of Democrats became criticism of Present administration concerning a policy in Iraq.

 

However in the second half of American session the dollar started to decrease, traders sold dollar expecting publication of reports of FOMC minutes.

 

It is necessary to tell that expectations of the market’s participants proved to be true. According to minutes of FOMC meeting, Committee members are afraid of inflationary risks and think with optimism about prospects of economic rise as the FOMC minutes showed which took place the last month.

 

FOMC members discussed various aspects of a situation in housing market, a target rate of inflation and risks of growth of inflation on a background of preservation of the prices above a zone of comfort. As a whole the minutes of the meeting shows that the majority of FRS heads are inclined to raise discount rates if inflation rates do not decrease.

 

Today there are expected whole block of the important news over the USA, first of all, an issue of inflationary index, consumer price index CPI, and also Net Foreign Purchases. While it is necessary to remain outside the market and to wait for results of key news.

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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