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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Unexpected statement of French Prime-minister led to sales of European currencies...

16:09 11/15/2006

Yesterday's trade was marked by high volatility of almost all basic pairs. We remind that reaction of the market to the publication of yesterday's data in the USA was sharp and significant.

 

So, right after publication of a series of economic indicators the dollar was in sales. We remind that data showed significant falling of a level of the producer prices and volumes of retail sales in the USA.

 

Producer price index in the USA made -1.6 % for October, at the forecast -0.5 %, and the previous value -1.3 %. Thus producer price index, except for food and energy prices in the USA made -0.9 % for October, at the forecast of +0.1 %, and the previous value of +0.6 %.

Drop in parameters was promoted by significant falling of auto-prices in October, which made 2.3 %. Thus the prices for lorries showed new record decrease by 9.7 %, and, thus, value of the index ex cars and lorries made +0.1 %.

Besides reduction in a core index was promoted by drop in prices on computers, which have made in October 3.1 %. And the energy prices on a background of falling of gas prices by 9.3 %, dipped 5.0 %. Thus, food prices decreased 0.8 %.

 

As a result inflationary parameters were considerably below expected levels. Thus the first parameter reached record-breaking low level, having achieved five years' levels. And the second parameter, moreover, was the lowest since 1993.

 

Other major indicators, pointing out change of volumes of retail sales in the USA also could not inspire players on dollar-purchase.

Let's remind that retail sales in the USA in October fell 0.2 %, thus ex auto sales decreased 0.4 % whereas reduction by 0.4 % and 0.3 % accordingly was expected.

Besides data for September were revised downwardly - sales were revised to -0.8 % from -0.4, and ex auto retail sales – to -1.2 % from -0.5 %.

And retail sales except for gas made +0.4 %, and except for gas and cars were up 0.3 %.

Thus sales of petrol stations fell 6.0 % after decrease by 11.1 % a month ago, and sales of auto-dealers grew 0.6 % against +0.7 % in September. Sales of furniture and department stores decreased 0.7 % in October. And food sales were up 1.0 %, in the field of public health services rise made 1.3 %.

 

Data on inventories were also below forecasts in the USA for September. We remind that at the forecast of +0.5 %, and the previous value of +0.6 %, value of a parameter made +0.4 %.

 

However the reason for mass purchases of dollar against all basic currencies became the unexpected statement of the Prime minister of France de Vilpen.

Let's remind that he declared that the high rate of single European currency affects negatively development of export industries.

Besides de Vilpen reproached ECB that the bank should trace more closely a situation around a rate of euro.

 

Let's also remind that today the market’s participants do not ignore two events. It is the publication of NY Empire State Index for November at 13:30 GMT. The forecast of value of the parameter is 15.0, and the previous value was 22.9.

In the end of the American trading session, at 19:00 GMT the publication of the report of FOMC minutes from October, 24-25th is planned.

 

We recommend to keep earlier opened sales of dollar/franc and dollar/canadian rates. The purposes stated earlier also hold good. Possible further rise of these pairs will allow us to be added to earlier opened "shorts", but already from safer levels.

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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