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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

15:49 11/13/2006

In first half of Friday the dollar exchange rate remained under pressure. Thus participants of the market did not react to the publication of weak data on a condition of economy of France and Italy.

Let's remind that industrial production in Italy made -1.0 % for a month, +1.3 % for a year for September, at the previous value of +1.2 % for a month, +3.5 % for a year.

 

The dollar also did not consider as support words of executive of Bank of China who declared that changes in the policy of regulation of gold and exchange currency reserves of the country are not planned.

Let's remind that on Thursday the representative of the Central Bank of China declared that the bank would have to revise soon accommodation of its gold and exchange currency reserves.

Thus, taking into account last tendencies, players decided that revision of foreign currency reserves, first of all, will be reduced to sales of the American currency and purchases of single European currency.

Dollar-negative background is also developed from talks about probability of similar steps – diversifications of their gold and currency reserves by the Central bank of the other countries, in particular Russia, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates.

 

The unwillingness of players to purchases of the American currency was strengthened after statements of assistant of executive of Bank of Japan Ivata declared on Friday that low interest rates in Japan in comparison with high rates in the USA should not always lead to growth of a rate of dollar/yen.

A favorable background in the market of precious metals, caused by drop in a rate of gold, did not inspired participants of the market on dollar purchases.

 

However in support of a rate of euro and other European currencies there were last statements of the head of institute Ifo Hans-Verner Zinna. We notice that in October the index of a business climate of institute Ifo grew unexpectedly for the first time for four months.

Let's remind that in interview to the Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung he noticed that economy of Germany the nearest years will most likely continue creation of new jobs, but the labour market can be unable to solve long-term problems which the countries with a low level of salaries will put.

So, the head of institute Ifo believes that the unemployment rate in the following two years will continue to decrease, but by the end of decade the economy will most likely test recession.

"The unemployment rate will possibly again exceed five millions, therefore we again face a question what reforms should be led to support economy", - Zinn noticed.

 

Besides rates of the European currencies are supported against dollar by positive expectation that ECB will raise the interest rate up to 4 % per annum by the middle of 2007.

Economists suppose that the next steps, directed to policy toughening, will be made on a background of confident economic rise and ECB vigilant attention to risks of break of the price stability, connected with a monetary situation.

As a result, the dollar/yen rate fell up to a level 117.11 at the Asian session. A rate of yen was supported by last data in Japan, and also talks about possible diversification of gold and exchange currency reserves by the central bank of China, Russia, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates.

 

Trade balance of Japan made +1.1 bln. yens for September, at the previous value of +0.312 bln. yens. The current account in Japan made +2.025 bln. yens for September, at the forecast of +2.0 bln. yens, and the previous value of +1.48 bln. yens.

Experts notice that both parameters were at good levels.

 

Thus index of wholesale prices in Japan made -0.3 % for a month, +2.8 % for a year for October, at the previous value of +0.3 % for a month, +3.6 % for a year.

Final value of industrial production in Japan made -0.7 % for a month, +5.2 % for a year for September, at the forecast -0.7 % for a month, +5.1 % for a year, and the previous value-0.7 % for a month, +5.1 % for a year.

 

Today, at 13:15 GMT in focus of attention of the market’s participants there will be a statement of the President of European central bank Trichet and also other head members of bank.

 

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