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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Varied Friday publications could not reduce general negative around dollar...

10:01 11/13/2006

After significant dollar-decrease on Thursday the tenders on Friday had already more inertial character. Participants of the market did not hurry up with new dollar sales at current levels and consequently, keeping waiting positions, counted on entering the market after small correction of the American currency.

 

Occasion for some recoil became weak data on a condition of economy of France and Italy published on Friday. The dollar was also supported a little by the unexpected statement of the head of the central bank of China that the bank does not yet plan to sell dollars or other currencies from the gold and exchange currency reserves.

It is necessary to remind that before other representative of the Central Bank of China declared that the bank would have to revise soon accommodation of its gold and exchange currency reserves.

Let's also remind that, taking into account last tendencies, players decided that revision of foreign currency reserves, first of all, will be reduced to sales of the American currency and purchases of single European currency.

Besides the favorable background for small growth of dollar was caused by reduction in a rate of gold.

 

However, the negative altitude to the American currency continues to be kept in the market. Thus statements of separate officials do not promote change of moods. So, for example, the assistant of executive of Bank of Japan Ivata declared on Friday that low interest rates in Japan in comparison with high rates in the USA should not always lead to growth of a rate of dollar/yen. Similar statements do not inspire players on new dollar purchases against yen.

 

In support of a rate of euro and other European currencies there were last statements of the head of institute Ifo Hans-Verner Zinna. We notice that in October the index of a business climate of institute Ifo grew unexpectedly for the first time for four months.

Let's remind that in interview to the Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung he noticed that economy of Germany the nearest years will most likely continue creation of new jobs, but the labour market can be unable to solve long-term problems which the countries with a low level of salaries will put.

So, the head of institute Ifo believes that the unemployment rate in the following two years will continue to decrease, but by the end of decade the economy will most likely test recession.

"The unemployment rate will possibly again exceed five millions, therefore we again face a question what reforms should be led to support economy", - Zinn noticed.

 

On the other hand rates of the European currencies are supported against dollar by positive expectation that ECB will raise the interest rate up to 4 % per annum by the middle of 2007.

Economists suppose that the next steps, directed to policy toughening, will be made on a background of confident economic rise and ECB vigilant attention to risks of break of the price stability, connected with a monetary situation.

 

As a result we recommend to continue to keep opened before sales of dollar/franc and dollar/canadian rates. Thus earlier mentioned purposes, nearest and long-term, also hold good.

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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