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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Yesterday’s data were varied and pressure upon dollar was kept...

15:29 11/10/2006

So, the bull spirit from positive data of the review of trade balance for September and jobless claims for last week in the USA was very was not durable. So, after the publication of these data the dollar made attempt of growth, however movement was limited by frameworks of a trading range and it pushed players to new dollar sales, but already from higher levels.

 

Let's remind that trade balance of the USA made -64.3 billion dollars for September, at the forecast-65.0 billion dollars.

And the previous value is revised from -69.9 up to -69.0 billion dollars.

 

Thus import reduced - $4.1 billion in comparison with + $3.9 billion in August owing to decrease in import of oil and gas to $3.3 billion. And oil price was down 5.4 % after 5 months of growth, and volumes reduced 8 %.

 

At the same time export grew + $0.6 billion due to increase in export of civil planes by $1 billion, however drop in export of grain and computer equipment was observed.

 

Economists notice that trade deficit with China in September reached a new record - $23 billion against - $22 billion a month earlier besides volumes of import from this country also reached record value.

Trade deficit with Japan made - $6.7 billion against - $7.5 billion in August, with OPEC - $9.2 billion against - $11.2 billion, and with the European Union reduced to - $7 billion from $11 billion.

 

And jobless claims in the USA for a week on 04.11 made 308 thousand at the forecast 310 thousand, thus the previous value was revised from 327 thousand up to 328 thousand. Total number of jobless was up 43 thousand to 2 448 thousand according to for October, 28th.

 

However, at the same time, the dollar was under pressure of low values of import price index and University of Michigan index in the USA.

So, import price index in the USA made -2.0 % for October, at the forecast -1.1 %, and the previous value -2.0 %. And export price index in the USA made -0.4 % for October, at the previous value -0.4 %.

And preliminary value of University of Michigan sentiment index in the USA made 92.3 for November, at the forecast 93.5, and the previous value 93.6.

Thus the index of current conditions in comparison with the last month decreased from 107.3 up to 106.5, and the index of expectations made 83.2 in November against 84.8 earlier. And, indexes of annual and five years' inflationary expectations were down to 3.0 % from 3.1 %.

 

And the primary factor of pressure upon a rate of the American currency, in experts’ opinion, became the statement of heads of the central bank of China that Peking is going to diversify its reserves.

Let's remind that the majority of participants of the market consider single European currency as the basic tool for realization of diversification of gold-currency of reserves of the central bank of China, which make about 1 bln. dollars.

 

Swiss franc against dollar was also supported by the statement of one of heads of National bank of Switzerland Hildebrand that, even, despite lack of inflation risk in short-term prospect to prevent probable disbalance in economy in long-term prospect the bank can raise the basic interest rate.

 

Besides a dollar exchange rate is under some pressure of growth of the price of precious metals and oil quotations. We remind that oil continues to grow the second day in a row, having risen up to $61.35 a barrel at the tenders on Thursday, and now trades nearby $60.92.

The reason of growth became the data on stocks, which showed insignificant growth of crude oil stocks while stocks of distillates were down 8.5 %.

On this background oil traders, taking into account statements of official representatives of Saudi Arabia, are concerned by a theme of possible further drop in production at OPEC meeting next month.

 

As a result we still expect continuation of decrease in a dollar exchange rate against the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar. Therefore earlier opened "shorts" on these pairs should be kept. The nearest and long-term objectives of decrease also hold good.

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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