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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

11:47 11/08/2006

News about that by results of elections in the USA the Democratic Party restored the control over the House of Representatives after twelve years of domination of a Republican Party, led to that the dollar tested the next pressure.

The number of places which was received by Democrats in the lower chamber of the Congress, is not declared yet, however leaders of both parties recognized that the majority is already for Democratic Party.

 

Until now there is no confidence that Democrats could receive the control over the Senate.

Let's remind that 3 places are already behind them, but for the control over the Senate it is necessary to receive six places, having kept all current positions.

There is great probability that Republicans nevertheless will keep the control over the Senate with the minimal overweight.

As a whole final results of congressional elections of the USA should not cause high activity in the forex as even the victory of Democratic Party in both chambers of the Congress will not lead to fast changes in the US economic policy.

 

Let's remind, that the euro/dollar rate grew promptly at the American session and reached a level 1.2816, maximal since September, 25th. In the market they say that euro rate against dollar was supported by yesterday's statement of the President of Federal reserve bank in San Francisco Yellen, falling of the dollar/yen rate and also stop-orders on euro purchase above levels 1.2770 and 1.2800.

 

The consumer credit in the USA made -1.2 billion dollars for September. The forecast was +5.0 billion dollars, the previous value is revised from +5.0 up to +9.1 % billion dollars.

The parameter was much worse than the forecast and puts some pressure upon a dollar exchange rate. Its value is minimal since April, 1992.

At the same time significant upward revision of a parameter for the last month is noticed.

 

Let's remind that the next meeting of Governing Council of Reserve Bank of Australia concerning change of interest rates took place yesterday. As a result the basic interest rate was increased by 0.25 % up to a level of 6.25 %.

 

Last publications support a little the European currencies against dollar. So, trade balance of Germany for September made +15.6 billion euros, at the forecast +13.0 billion euros, and the previous value +11.2 billion euros.

And the current account in Germany made +9.4 billion euro for September, at the forecast +6.0 billion euro. The previous value is revised from +2.4 up to +2.5 billion euros. As a result both indicators were better than the expected levels.

 

It is necessary to notice that large players prefer to wait for key release of week - tomorrow's publication of data on the US trade balance.

Besides the issue of a lot of significant economic statistics in the USA is also planned for tomorrow.

 

Oil futures finished trading session with falling on expectations that week data on stocks of oil and mineral oil, published on Wednesday, will show their growth. However falling of oil prices was constrained by probability of that OPEC can continue decrease in oil production.

December future contract fell in price $1,09 and was closed at a level $58,93 a barrel.
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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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