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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Market’s participants are focused on data of foreign trade balance for September, which publication is planned on Thursday

18:34 11/07/2006

So, having made on Monday one more attempt of growth renewal, by the end of the American session the dollar returned to initial levels.

 

Before results of today's elections in the Senate and the House of Representatives in the USA participants of the market prefer to keep waiting position.

Let's remind that uncertainty in the market amplified after the publication of Friday survey of a labor market in the USA.

Friday data showed that production continues to grow and the companies moderately increase labor. That is why more rigid labor market stimulates payments, that became, as a result, the reason of that labor costs grew so considerably.

 

Let's also notice that, in analysts’ opinion, growing labor costs will stimulate FRS to pay more steadfast attention to inflationary processes in short-term prospect.

 

However, at the same time Friday labor market survey as well as some last data, show that decrease in rates of growth of a national economy happens not so fast as many experts assumed.

We also remind that experts, analyzing data of housing market, showing delay, forecast recession of consumption. And it, in turn, will push FRS to drop the rate not only in the second quarter, 2007, but also, probably, earlier.

 

The latest news from the energy market amplified the general uncertainty of a situation in the forex. We remind that recent significant (by 25 %) reduction of oil prices should influence positively on the American trading data.

Data on the foreign trade balance for September, which publication is planned on Thursday, can confirm validity of these expectations. Economists assume that falling of oil prices should affect reduction of trade deficit to $66-67 billion. Other experts consider quite justified expectations of value of trade deficit in area of 65 billion in comparison with 69.9 billion in August.

 

Let's also notice that the statements of some FRS representatives concerning a condition of the American economy and inflation will be extremely interesting for players.

Let's remind that yesterday Chicago FRB Head Michael Moskow spoke on these questions. He acts again tomorrow, on Wednesday on November, 8th.

And today the market’s participants hope to clear up a situation around FRS further steps, analyzing statements of Cleveland FRB Head Sandra Pianalto and San Francisco FRB Head Jannet Yellen.

Statement of FRS Chairman Ben Bernanke concerning a monetary policy and the monetary unit at conference in Frankfurt, planned in the forthcoming Friday, can become especially significant.

Except for data of the foreign trade balance of the USA for September, which will be key this week, on Thursday there will be published results of meeting of heads of Bank of England about the changes of the interest rate.

Let's remind that, taking into account data of last quarterly report on the inflation, shown necessity for the further anti-inflationary measures, the majority of economists expect increase of the rate by 25 basic points up to 5 %.

 

As a result we recommend to adhere to our last recommendations: to keep dollar/franc and dollar/canadian sales. The purposes of sales also hold good.

 

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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