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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD After Friday rise dollar does not hurry up to succeed...

23:36 11/06/2006

So, inspired by significant upward revision of new jobs for the last month, and also unexpected decrease in unemployment rate, the market started intensive dollar-purchases.

 

Let's remind that number of new payrolls in the USA made 92 thousand for October, at the forecast 130 thousand, thus the previous value is revised from 51000 up to 148000.

Unemployment in the USA made 4.4 % for October, at the forecast of 4.6 % and the previous value of 4.6 %.

 

Hourly earnings in the USA for October were also important for experts. We remind that it made +0.4 %, at the forecast of +0.3 %, and the previous value of +0.2 %.

In analysts’ opinion these data showed that production continues to grow and the companies moderately increase labor. As a result, more rigid labor market stimulates payments. And it became the reason of that labor costs grew rather noticeably.

For participants of the market this aspect of the report was extremely important, as, in opinion of the experts growing labor costs will force FRS to pay attention again to inflationary risks in short-term prospect.

 

Besides data of the survey specify that drop in rates of growth of a national economy happens not so promptly as it was supposed earlier.

Let's remind that before Friday publications, some experts had assumptions that delay of the housing market will influence on consumption and a labor market and will force FRS to dip the rate not only in the second quarter of next year, but also much earlier.

 

Now, after so unexpected figures of the employment report in October which, taking into account revision of data of last months and low unemployment rate, was rather good.

As a result, stronger employment on a labor market, in opinion of economists, is conterminous indicator in the best, and in general lagging indicator of a condition of economy.

The survey confirms testimonies of that the economy is still in stable condition, and not only reduces probability of drop in FRS rate in the near future, but also assumes that FOMC will have to revise the current policy aside increases in a level of the basic interest rates.

 

Let's also remind that last months a primary factor of pressure upon the dollar were speculations around possible reduction of a level of interest rates by FRS.

Now the situation around this forecast began to change noticeably. However cautious dollar/franc sales should while be kept, besides it is necessary to strengthen them from a level 1.2615.

And the players, keeping long-term dollar/canadian "shorts" from a level 1.1330 - should also continue to keep them.

The long-term and nearest purposes, stated earlier, also while hold good.              

 

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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