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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Daily Market Survey

20:30 11/03/2006

Because of the day off in Japan, the financial market in this country is closed today. The course of dollar/yen during the tradings at the Asian session was retained above the level of 117.00. The course Euro/dollar remains stable near the mark 1.2770-80.

On the threshold of publishing the survey of the labor market in the USA, and also because of the day off in Japan the activity of investors on the Forex Market is on the low level.

 

Yesterday course Euro/dollar, with the support of the aggressive statements of the Central Bank of Europe’s President Trichet and positive economic data in Germany and Europe (12), undertook another attempt of growth resumption. However, having reached the level of 1.2785 at the American session, the pair refused growing further and the trade took the range character.

 

On Thursday the Central Bank of Europe, as the majority of experts expected, preserved refinancing rate at the level of 3.25%. This decision was expected by the majority of economists and did not become a surprise for participants of the Market.

The CBE’s head Trichet stated at the press conference after the session that it is necessary to be by maximum vigilant in order to maintain the price stability in the Euro-zone. The statement increased the expectations of the fact that at the following session, which is scheduled to December, the CBE may increase rates to 0.25%.

 

Participants of the market focused attention on the fact that published before the CBE session the economic indices, as a whole, also appeared to be positive.

Thus, business index in Italy in October, with the forecast of 54.7, and the previous value of 54.8; constituted 56.2.

Business index in France in October, with the previous value of 56.0; constituted 56.3.

 

Business index in Germany in October, with the forecast 58.6, and the previous value of 58.4; constituted 58.2.

At the same time the change of the number of the unemployed in Germany in October adjusted to seasonal variations, with the forecast of -19 thousand, and the previous value of -17 thousand, constituted -67 thousand.

Unemployment in Germany in October, without adjustment to seasonal variations, with the previous value of 10.1%; constituted 9.8%.

 

Business index in Europe (12) in October, with the forecast of 56.8, and the previous value of 56.6; constituted 57.0.

 

American statistics, in contrast to the European, proved to be weaker than the forecasts of economists. Thus, the number jobless claims in the USA for the week to 28.10, with the forecast of 308 thousand, constituted 327 thousand. And the previous value was reviewed from 308 thousand to 309 thousand.

 

The preliminary value of the index of labor productivity in the USA for the third quarter, with the forecast of +1.7%, and the previous value of +1.2%, constituted 0.0%.

 

Analysts indicate that the growing expenditures for man power will force FRS to focus on the inflation in the short-term outlook. Since production continues to grow and companies moderately increase man power, and the more rigid labor market stimulates compensation, then, as a result, it leads to a sharp increase in the expenditures for man power.

In addition to this, the experts noted that the rate of growth of productivity of labor proved to be minimum in the last eight years.

 

The index of production orders in the USA in September, with the forecast of +3.2%, constituted +2.1%. But the previous value was reviewed from 0.0% to -0.3%. At the same time the orders not taking into account transport constituted -2.4%, and transport orders grew of 28.6% due to the increase of the orders for commercial airplanes of 189.7%.

At the same time the orders for the automobiles fell of 4.7%, and the non-durable orders - of 4.6%.

And durable orders, meanwhile, grew of 8.3%, shipping fell of 3.5%, and the unfilled orders showed increase to 3.9%. The shipping of the means of the production not connected with the defense reduced of 0.3% in September against +2.0% in August. And orders without taking into account aircrafts in September fell to 1.3% from +1.3% a month earlier.

And petroleum quotations again were reduced on the sums of the trading on Thursday against the background of an increase of oil production in Nigeria and of the high oil stockpiles OF THE USA. Thus, December futures to the American light oil were reduced of $0,83 to $57,88 per barrel. December futures to the oil of brand Brent descended to $1,11 to $57,87 per barrel

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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