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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Today market’s attention is focused on data of US labor market survey for October

17:18 11/03/2006

Thus, on the threshold of publishing the key release of the week the participants of the Market prefer to keep a waiting position.

 

Let us recall that the negative for the American currency series of data was yesterday continued; however, it did not bring any noticeable change to the situation on the market.

 

It is noteworthy, that the Euro, British pound and Swiss franc refused to continue their growth against the dollar even against the background of the unexpectedly rigid statement of the Central Bank of Europe’s President  Trichet, which appeared soon after the session of the Reserve Board .

Let us recall that, as the majority of experts expected, on Thursday the Central Bank of Europe preserved the refinancing rate at the level of 3.25 %.

Yesterday the CBE’s head Trichet reminded again that it is necessary to be maximum vigilant for maintaining the price stability in the region. These words strengthened the expectations of the fact that at the last session of this year, scheduled to December, the CBE may increase the rates of 0.25%.

 

It is also noteworthy, that the yesterday's Trichet’s statements were anticipated by publishing the positive economic data in Germany, in other industrial countries of the region, and in Europe (12) as a whole.

 

However, the data from the ocean appeared to be, on the contrary, weaker than the economists’ expectations. Let us recall that the number of jobless claims in the USA per week to 28.10, with the forecast of 308 thousand, constituted 327 thousand. And the previous value was reviewed with 308 thousand to 309 thousand.

At the same time, the preliminary value of the index of labor productivity in the USA for the third quarter, with the forecast +1.7%, and previous value of +1.2%, constituted 0.0%.

In the opinion of experts, growing expenditures for man power will force FRS to focus on the inflation in the short-term outlook. Since the production continues to grow and companies moderately increase man power, and the more rigid labor market stimulates compensation, then, as a result, it leads to a sharp growth of the expenditures for man power.

At the same time the economists note that the rate of labor productivity growth appeared to be minimal during the last eight years.

 

The Production Orders Index in the USA in September, with the forecast +3.2%, constituted +2.1%. And the previous value was reviewed from 0.0% to -0.3%.

At the same time the orders without taking into account transport constituted -2.4%, and transport orders grew of 28.6% because of the increased orders for the commercial airplanes of 189.7%.

At the same time the orders for automobiles fell of 4.7%, and orders for nondurable goods - of 4.6%.

The orders for durable goods, meanwhile, grew of 8.3%, shipping fell of 3.5%, and the unfilled orders showed the increase of 3.9%.

The shipping of the means of the production not connected with the defense reduced of 0.3% in September against +2.0% in August. And the orders without taking into account aircrafts in September fell of 1.3% from +1.3% a month earlier.

 

Today the attention of all participants of the Market will be directed toward the data of the USA labor market survey, publishing of which is  scheduled to 13:30 GMT:

- quantity of new workplace in the USA in October. The forecast is 130 thousand, the previous value  was 51 thousand;

- unemployment in the USA in October. The forecast is 4.6%, and the previous value was 4.6%;

- the index of average Hourly Earnings in the USA in October. The forecast is +0.3%, and the previous value was +0.2%.

 

Later, at 15:00 GMT ISM service for October will be published. The forecast is 54.3, the previous value is 52.9.

 

We recommend to adhere to our last recommendations: to keep the sales of the course dollar/canadian, opened from level 1.1330. The immediate objective of sales will be the mark 1.1220, and the key purpose is at 1.1060.

Concerning the course of dollar/frank, remaining out of the market, return to the level of 1.2515-20 should be waited, where careful sales should be started. In the case of further growth of the pair, previously open "Shorts" should be strengthened from the level of 1.2600-15.

The key purposes of these sales are the levels of 1.2060-80.

 

 

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