Yesterday the Central Bank of Europe was in the center of attention. However, the Market practically ignored the declaration of the CBE’s decision about the rates. It caused nobody doubts that the key interest rate will be left at previous level of 3.25%. The other rates also remained at the previous level: the deposit rate (2.25%) and marginal rate of crediting (4.25%).

The commentaries of the CBE’s head Trichet could not surprise the market. Trichet gave to understand that in order to restrain inflation the interest rates may be raised of 0,25% next month.

Contradictory fundamental data on the USA also did not have an essential effect on the Market.

Today the Market is consolidating in the expectation of key data on the USA, The Employment Report of the Department of Labor for July. The Report publication takes place today at 12.30 GMT.

The Report includes 4 indices:

Average Workweek 

Hourly Earnings

Nonfarm Payrolls

Unemployment Rate

The indicators Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are especially important. An increase in the first and the decrease of the last gives support to dollar and vice versa the decrease of the first index and the increase in the second exerts pressure on dollar.

Let us recall that the previous report showed an increase of Nonfarm Payrolls to 128 000, and Unemployment Rate showed 4,7%.

This time, the analysts forecast reduction of Nonfarm Payrolls to 120 000, Unemployment Rate is assumed not to change and to remain to 4,7 %.

Today there is the possibility to open intra-day positions on the results of the news release, under the following conditions. Shorts on the Euro and pounds sterling, if index Nonfarm Payrolls will be better than the previous values, and Unemployment Rate will prove to be at the previous level or decrease.

If the data of Nonfarm Payrolls is in the range higher than the expectations, but worse than the previous data or Unemployment Rate proves to be in the contradiction with the data on NP, then we remain out of the market.

A number of work places is most likely to increase, since previous data showed the absolute annual minimum of increase, and the preliminary indices of employment in sub-indices of Chicago PMI and ISM, released the day before, were the only positive moment in these reports. The thing is in that, how strong Nonfarm Payrolls increase will prove to be, if index NP shows the increase higher than the forecasted values then this will be a good signal for the impulse actions.

Therefore today it is necessary to be to ready to the purchases of dollar, if the mentioned above conditions are satisfied. The strategy is the same, we open 2 lots, 1st lot is for the closest objective of 40 points, and 2d lot is fixed break-even. The stop-loss is as always not closer than 100 points.