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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Before today's events and tomorrow's publication of US labor market survey players prefer not to make large transactions...

15:23 11/02/2006

So, the American currency again was under pressure after the next portion of weak economic statistics.

Let's remind that ISM index in the USA in October fell to 51.2, having been below forecasts of economists of 52.5, meanwhile, as in September the index made 52.9.

 

The general indicator was below a predicted level that is the dollar-negative factor, however economists paid attention also to other components of the report.

 

So, subindex of the paid prices decreased to 47.0 from 61.0 a month earlier, that is connected with falling of gas prices. In the meantime subindex of new orders also showed reduction - in October its value made 52.1 against 54.2 in September. Thus subindex of export orders grew up to 57.8 from 55.3. And subindex of production dropped from 56.1 in September up to 51.9.

 

It is remarkable that employment subindex was up to 50.8 from 49.4, that increases positive expectations of employment rise in data of Friday US labor market survey. We also remind that this survey is one of key releases of week, and usually forms the market’s direction the nearest weeks.

 

Another important indicator, published yesterday, also could not inspire players on purchases. We remind that construction spending index in the USA made -0.3 % for September, at the forecast of 0.0 %. And the previous value was revised from +0.3 % up to 0.0 %.

 

It is necessary to notice that for the market’s participants today promises to be extremely rich. We remind that the important event for players at 12:45 GMT will be the publication of results of meeting of ECB Governing Council concerning change of interest rates in Europe (12). We notice that overwhelming majority of analysts expect that the level of interest rates remains constant.

However, the players’ attention will be focused on press conference by results of meeting of ECB Governing Council, which is planned at 13:30 GMT. Participants of the market hope that statements of ECB Governing Council members will help to clear up a situation concerning ECB further steps.

 

The data, published today, on economy of Eurozone, and as a whole of Europe (12), continue to point out stability of development of the European economy.

Let's remind that ISM index in Germany made 58.2 for October, at the forecast 58.6, and the previous value 58.4,. Thus unemployment in Germany, except for seasonal fluctuations, decreased from 10.1 % in September to 9.8 % in October. And ISM index in Europe (12) made 57.0 for October, at the forecast 56.8, and the previous value 56.6.

 

Besides today at 13:30 GMT three indicators of the US economic condition will be published:

- Jobless claims in the USA for a week by 28.10. The forecast 308 thousand, the previous value 308 thousand;

- Preliminary value of labor productivity in the USA for the third quarter. The forecast of +1.7 %, and the previous value +1.6 %;

- Preliminary value of unit cost in the USA for the third quarter. The previous value of +4.9 %.

Later, at 15:00 GMT the index of factory orders in the USA for September will be published. The forecast of +3.2 %, the previous value of 0.0 %.

 

As a whole, activity in the market remains dull enough as the market’s participants prefer not to open new trading positions before the publication of US labour market survey for October.

 

We recommend to keep sales of the dollar/canadian rate, opened from a level 1.1330. The purposes of these sales while hold good.

Recommendations to sell the dollar/franc rate also hold good in case of recoil to the stated levels (1.2520, and then and to 1.2615) will. The purposes of these "shorts" remain at a level 1.2060.

 

 

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TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
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EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
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GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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