Yesterday the dollar again was under pressure - weak data on a manufacturing industry of the USA which showed decrease in activity in this sector of economy, confirmed opinion of the market on drop in business activity as a whole in the US economy.

Let's remind that on the eve Chicago purchasing managers’ indexes demonstrated first signs of decrease in activity.

ISM Index on the report of Department of Commerce in sector of a manufacturing industry of the USA decreased to 51,2 in October against 52,9 in September. Though value above 50 is still growth, it is obvious that its rate is slowed down almost up to zero. Analysts predicted small growth of this index.

Almost all components of the index showed reduction, ISM new orders dipped to 52,1, finished goods to 51,9. The single positive moment in this report, as well as in data on Chicago PMI - were employment parameters, ISM employment index was up to 50,8 points.

In analysts’ opinion growth of employment should soften falling of rates of economic rise. In this connection a report of Department of Labor about a real situation in the labour market, about payrolls the last month is significant enough - positive data of this report can keep the dollar within the limits of a currency range.

The dollar tested pressure from oil market, data shown reduction of stocks of petroleum and distillates caused the next growth of oil futures the second straight day, the prices of December futures on NYMEX rose to a mark $59,5 a barrel on results of two day time trading sessions.

According to EIA stocks of petroleum for a week for October, 27th reduced 2,8 million to 204,6 million barrels, and distillates 2,7 million up to 141,3 million barrels.

Besides data on construction spending demonstrated decrease that once again confirmed scale reduction of the market of the real estate. According to Department of Commerce spending dipped 0,3 % in September, after growth of 0,3 % in August.

Today the market’s attention will be focused on the decision of ECB Governing Council about the rate of refinancing. The euro grew in October owing to expectations of increase of ECB rates in the end of year while FRS and Bank of Japan preferred to refrain from actions in October. Besides today Trichet can let know that toughening will proceed in 2007. On these speculations the euro can become stronger today within a day. Narrowing of differential on rates between Europe and the USA and growth of expectations of the market concerning ECB rates can lead to that by the end of a year the euro will trade at levels $1.30 and 150 yen, the senior economist and currency analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Masauki Kichikava considers.

From the very beginning of this week market moods develop against the dollar, however nevertheless a key parameter of force or weakness of the dollar become Friday reports on the labor market of the USA. It is necessary while to keep from active actions and to wait for tomorrow.