|
So, pressed down by the next portion of a fundamental negative, the dollar dipped to a following level of support. Especially significant dollar falling was against the European currencies and the Japanese yen, however against raw currencies dollar drop was limited.
Let's remind that Chicago Purchasing managers’ index in the USA made 53.5 for October, at the forecast 58.2, and the previous value 62.1.
Analysts notice that the parameter was not only considerably below the forecast, but also reached a minimum level for last 14 months.
Another important indicator of economic condition – consumers’ confidence index in the USA for October, also was worse than the expected level and, owing to upward revision of the previous value fell in comparison with the last month.
Let's remind that, at the forecast 108.5, value of the parameter was 105.4. And the previous value was revised from 104.5 up to 105.9.
Thus subindex of expectations grew up to 92.6 from 91.0 in September, however subindex of current conditions fell to 124.7 from 128.3 due to less positive prospects of a labour market.
Subindex of those who considers that it is difficult to find a job at present, grew up to 22.0 in October from 20.9 in September, and subindex of those who believes that it is easy to find a job, made 25.8 against 26.2 a month earlier.
Despite decrease in the general parameter, the analysis of all data of the report allows to assume the moderate economic growth in 2007.
Obvious positive for the market became that fact that planned housing charges did not change, while planned auto and equipment expenses rose.
It is remarkable that according to the report, annual inflationary expectations did not change in comparison with the last month, having remained at a level of 4.9 %.
And the value of manpower costs index in the USA made +1.0 % for the third quarter 2006, at the forecast of +0.9 %, and the previous value of +0.9 %.
Today in the center of attention there will be two important economic indicators, which publication is planned at 15:00 GMT:
- ISM index in the USA for October. The forecast 53.2, the previous value 52.9;
- Construction Spending index in the USA for September. The forecast of 0.0 %, the previous value of +0.3 %.
As a whole, yesterday's data increased even more probability of that interest rates in the USA in immediate prospects will be left without change that assumes continuation of down movement.
Therefore we recommend to wait fore more significant correctional recoil of the dollar from key levels of support (1.2400-20) for dollar/franc. The purposes of this recoil can become marks 1.2520, however it is impossible to exclude growth to 1.2615. We recommend to begin cautious sales of the pair from a level 1.2520, and to strengthen these "shorts" at 1.2615.
It is necessary to consider as the strategic purposes of sales of the rate a level 1.2060.
And the players, who opened dollar/canadian sales from a level 1.1330, it is necessary to keep them. The key purpose of these sales should be considered a level 1.1050.


|