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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Business and consumer moods decreased sharply, having put pressure on dollar.

18:36 11/01/2006

Yesterday the dollar tested impact after an issue of weak data on business and consumer sentiment in the USA.

 

First of all, Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index showed unexpectedly strong decrease to 54,1 points, analysts expected less significant reduction to 58,0 points against data for August - 62,1 points.

 

 

The falling was fixed almost in all components of the index. In September New Orders were down 13,2 points to 54,1, Production decreased 8,2 points to 59,2 in September.

The single positive in the US economy on Chicago index was a labor market - the Employment index grew 6,2 points up to 57,0.

 

This index anticipates an issue of federal data on production - the report of Department of Commerce - ISM indexes, which publication is expected today in the beginning of the American session. Analysts expect small growth of ISM index, however an issue of a weak Chicago PMI raises doubts concerning these forecasts.

 

The US consumers confidence, according to Conference Board index, unexpectedly reduced in October because of anxiety of Americans about prospects of employment. The index showed unexpected decrease in consumers’ sentiment in October. The index of consumer confidence ?? decreased to 105,4 in October against the value 105,9 revised upwardly in September.

 

 

As Bloomberg News survey showed, the majority of economists expected growth of confidence up to 108. Average value of the index in the first 9 months of a year made 105,4.

Consumers’ optimism about a current situation dropped to 124,7 this month against 128,3. The index of consumer expectations for the following 6 months grew up to 92,6 against 91 in September, Conference Board informed.

 

Share of consumers, who declared that it is easy to find job, decreased to 25,8 % against 26,2 % in September. The number of those, who considers that it is difficultly to find job, increased up to 22 % against 20,9 %.

 

The share of those who expects growth of incomes in future, was 19,6 % against 20,2 % in September.

 

Today except for ISM indexes the issue of the week report on oil and mineral oil stocks is also expected, pending this report dealers started to buy up December futures for oil, so the dollar got small support.

 

Let's remind this week, except for this the market expects the key Employment report in the USA

The report includes 4 parameters:

Average Workweek

Hourly Earnings

Nonfarm Payrolls - employment level, except for agriculture.

Unemployment Rate.

Indicators Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are especially important. The increase of the first and reduction of the last - supports the dollar and on the contrary reduction of the first parameter and increase of the second - puts pressure upon the dollar.

 

Let's remind that the previous report showed a little bit ambiguous data: strong drop in nonfarm payrolls growth up to 51 000 on a background of decrease in the unemployment rate by 0,1 % up to 4,6 %.

 

This time analysts forecast growth of nonfarm payrolls up to 135 000, it is supposed that the unemployment rate will not change and remains at 4,6 %.

 

Before this report traders will not most likely show activity, therefore while we remain outside the market.

 

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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