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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

11:47 10/30/2006

Right after Friday sharp falling the dollar/yen rate was established between levels 117.20 and 117.56 at the Asian session. The euro/yen rate decreased to a mark 149.20, minimal for last ten days. It is noticed that the yen rate was supported by the expectation of tomorrow's publication of the semi-annual report of Bank of Japan.

 

Let's remind that on Friday the deputy minister of the finance of Japan Vatanabe declared that, proceeding from their fundamental economic parameters in Japan, he does not expect the further easing of the yen rate.

 

And preliminary value of industrial production index in Japan for September made -0.7 % for a month, +5.1 % for a year. The forecast was -0.9 % for a month, the previous value +1.8 % for a month, +5.9 % for a year.

 

Thus Friday data, testifying to lower rates of the US economic growth continue to put pressure upon a dollar exchange rate. They increase probability of that interest rates in the USA in immediate prospects will be left without change. The opportunity of their downturn in the first quarter of next year is not excluded also. Besides a dollar exchange rate is under pressure of growth of rates of precious metals.

 

But a primary factor of pressure upon dollar became Friday publication of preliminary value of GDP index in the USA for the third quarter, 2006, which not only was considerably below the forecast, but also reached a minimum level for last three and a half years.

Let's remind that gross domestic product in the USA made +1.6 % for the third quarter, at the forecast of +2.0 %, and the previous value of +2.6 %.

Thus GDP chain deflator in the third quarter made 2.5 %, a core parameter - 2.3 % that testifies to decrease in inflation due to economic delay.

 

The publication of final value of University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in the USA, which made 93.6 for September at the forecast 92.3, and the previous value 92.3, could not change mood in the market. Though the given parameter was better than the predicted level, but it could not support a dollar exchange rate.

 

Optimistical statements of officials also could not affect the bear spirit in relation to dollar in the market. We remind that Minneapolis FRB President Harry Stern noted FRS big success in achievement of low inflation.

And Henry Paulson noticed that trade deficit in the USA will depend on events abroad. He also added that the strong dollar answers national interests.

We also remind that today in Switzerland is the day off therefore the financial market in the country is closed.

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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