On Friday the dollar once again tested pressure after publication of preliminary data on GDP: Gross Domestic Product in the USA for 3 quarter.

Data of Department of Commerce showed the most significant reduction of economic rates for last two years. The US economy in 3 quarter grew even at smaller rates than in 4 quarter, 2005 when the damage from a series of destructive hurricanes affected considerably rates of growth. These data also were considerably below the expected by the majority of economists growth of 2,1 %.

After strong GDP growth in 1 quarter, 2005, during all period of current year the downtrend of GDP gain in the USA was observed. If in 1 quarter - growth was maximal for last 2 years - 5,6 % per annum, in the 2-nd quarter it showed value twice smaller than previous - 2,6 %, and it is 1 % less in 3 quarter. Analysts connect so strong decrease with a hike in energy prices which reached the maximal threshold prices - the levels close to a level $80 a barrel in the beginning of 3 quarter.

GDP growth is under pressure of scale cooling of the market of the real estate. Construction spending reduced 17,4 % the last quarter. This is the maximal reduction since 1 quarter 1991. A record growth of trade deficit, which in September showed the maximal growth - above $80 billion, also influences negatively.

Analysts assume that so strong decrease in economy will affect results of forthcoming elections. The rating of President Bush and a Republican party is now at the minimal marks. And makes 40 % according to AP-Ipsos survey among aduls. It is one of the lowest levels. The surveyed voters are more likely ready to entrust Democrats to monitor economy rather than Republicans.

Thus it has once again confirmed FRS data about the general cooling of the US economy and about risks of stagnation. In these conditions it is improbable that FRS will raise rates up to the middle of the next year.

Positive releases on University of Michigan consumer sentiment index helped the dollar. Final value of consumer sentiment index demonstrated growth of consumer sentiment of Americans up to 93,6 points in October against preliminary value 92,3, and 85,4 in September.

Today the publication of official data on the consumer market from Department of Commerce takes place. According to Bloomberg survey of leading analysts consumer spending grew 0,2 % in September after growth of 0,1 % in August (that became the minimal growth for last 9 months), according to the average forecast of 52 economists polled by Bloomberg News agency.

Incomes rose and rates of inflation slowed down, analysts believe.

Economists’ forecasts concerning growth of consumer spending vary from -0,3 % up to +0,5 %. Incomes, possibly, were up 0,3 % the second straight month.

Technical picture.

Quotations of the European currencies on dollar came back in limits of a currency corridor - a sideways. Quotations will most likely be volatile within the limits of it up to issue of key data of the labour market – the US Employment. While we remain outside the market.