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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Dollar keeps down after FOMC decision to leave the former rate.

15:47 10/27/2006

Yesterday during all trading session traders continued to sell the dollar, being under impression of FOMC decision to leave the federal funds rate at a former level, and also soft enough comments, accompanying this decision. Proceeding from the brief theses describing an economic situation in the country, containing in these comments, the majority of analysts consider that FRS will not raise the rate in the nearest to prospect, at least, within 1 half of the next year.

 

Traders continued to dump the dollar even despite more positive fundamental data over the USA published yesterday in the beginning of the American session.

 

From positive news over the USA it is possible to note, first of all, news on housing market and data on durable orders. New home sales grew unexpectedly in September that means that cooling of the market of the real estate is not so considerable.

 

According to the report of Department of Commerce new home sales were up 5,3 % to an annual parameter 1,075 million in September against 1,021 million in August.

The economists polled by Bloomberg News agency, expected that sales would reduce to 1,04 million against a preliminary estimation in August 1,05 million. Forecasts varied from 995 thousand up to 1,1 million.

 

 

However, signs of cooling of housing market are in this report so data on new home cost show that the average price of new house decreased in annual calculation by 9,7 %. The average price for the new house decreased in September up to $217 100 against $240 400 a year ago as today's report demonstrated. It became the maximal drop since December, 1970 when housing prices fell 11,2 %, Department of Commerce informs. The average price was minimal since September, 2004 when the level of $211 600 was observed.

 

These data also show that measures on stimulation of sales, made by the building companies, downturn of mortgage lending rates and drop in prices can support housing market from the further falling this year.

 

Durable Orders grew the last month as much as possible for more than 6 years owing to demand for commercial air liners and the industrial equipment that can support the American economy, weakened by deterioration of a situation in housing market.

 

Growth of orders by 7,8 % almost 4 times exceeded average forecast of Bloomberg News, followed decrease of 0,1 % in August as the report of Department of Commerce showed. Excepting the transport equipment, orders were up 0,1 % after decrease of 1,5 %.

 

More positive can be considered week reports on the labor market, which demonstrated growth of jobless claims by 8000 up to 308 000. However these data were expected by the market, analysts forecast growth of claims up to 308 000. As 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims -2 750 up to 305 250 for a week for October, 21st.

 

 

Today there is expected an issue of two more key indictors on the US economy, it is preliminary value of a parameter of dynamics of GDP growth in the USA for 3 quarter, decrease in GDP growth by 0,6 % up to 2 % of an annual gain is expected. And also a parameter of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

 

Market sentiments are gradually developed against the dollar, pessimism concerning the American currency was warmed up by FRS former head Alan Greenspan, in his opinion, at present there is such situation where both private investors, and the Central Banks refuse US dollar in favor of euro. However a precise trend was not defined yet, quotations are volatile inside of a sideways, the market does not yet give precise signals for an entrance, therefore we remain outside the market

 

 

 

 

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