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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

World oil prices supported stock market.

15:25 10/27/2006

MACROECONOMICS.

 

The department of foreign and public relations of Bank of Russia informs that the volume of monetary base in narrow definition for October, 23rd, 2006 made 2785,1 billion rubles against 2764,6 billion rubles for October, 16th, 2006.

The monetary base in narrow definition includes released by Bank of Russia cash (in view of the demand balance in cash departments of the credit organizations) and demand balance of obligatory reserves on the means attracted by the credit organizations in the national currency, deposited in Bank of Russia.

 

Growth of the Russian economy in the third quarter, 2006 made 6,9 %. On results of 2006 GDP growth can exceed official forecasts of the government and by that to come nearer parameters allowing at preservation of the high oil prices to double gross domestic product until 2010.

 

"On results of 2006 expected GDP growth will make 6,6-6,7 % against 6,4 % in 2005", - report of the Ministry of Economic Development on a situation in economy of the Russian Federation for January-September, 2006 says. The official forecast of growth of the Russian economy in 2006 makes 6,6 %. So that Russian gross domestic product double till 2010, there is not several tenth points, transmits NEWSru.com referring to "Commercant".

 

In the third quarter, 2006, according to the ministry, GDP growth made 6,9 % against 6,6 % in 2005. In the first quarter, 2006 Herman Gref's department was concerned by that rates of economic growth fall, however in the second quarter the situation changed: in annual calculation growth increased from 5,5 % in the first quarter up to 7,4 %.

 

Such acceleration the Ministry of Economic Development explains by big consumer demand and acceleration of demand for investments. Rates of growth of investments into a capital of the Russian enterprises really impress: in January-September, 2006 they were up 11,7 %, whereas in January-September, 2005 - 9,8 %. Only for September, 2006 growth of investments made 15 %. Leaders of growth, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, were construction and trade. If industrial production as a whole grew 4,2 % for nine months 2006, growth in construction for the same period - 11,4 %.

 

MARKET’S GENERAL ESTIMATION.

 

On Thursday the Russian share market opened with the confident growth, as the basis for which were Wednesday news about unexpected decrease in fuel stocks in the USA, at the expected growth, and FRS statement that the rate remains at a former level of 5,25 % per annum. Investors’ optimism was also supported by comments of authorities on its improbable increase in the future. By the end of day on the market there was outlined stabilization, perhaps because players decided to fix profit. The further movement of the market will depend on whether the oil prices can manage to fix at the reached range above $60 a barrel.

MICEX index fell 0,42 % and made 1443,08 points. RTS index was up 0,34 % and was closed at level 1636,03 points. News that "Rosneft" is going to borrow $24,5 billion for purchase of all JUKOS assets, was reflected poorly on quotations of its shares: on MICEX they grew 0,4 %. Shares of other companies of the sector were closed varied: Gazpromneft (+0,52 %), Gazprom (-1,60 %), LUKOIL (+0,36 %), Tatneft (-0,17 %), Surgutneftegaz (-0,35 %).

Other "blue chips" on MICEX showed following results: RAO "United Energy Systems" (+0,63 %), Norilsk Nickel (-1,46 %), Sberbank (+0,38 %), Severstal (+0,17 %), MTS (-0,44 %), Rostelecom (-0,26 %). The volume of the tenders increased on MICEX and made $2947,24 million. In classical section of RTS it also grew and was at $49,67 million.

 

GAZPROM.

 

Unlike general dynamics of the market yesterday Gazprom shares were under pressure after news about limitation of the price of delivered gas to Ukraine.

In 2007 Ukraine will receive not less than 55 billion cubic meters of import gas at the price of not above $130 for 1 thousand cubic meters. The prime minister of republic Victor Janukovich informed on this within the limits of joint press conference with the Russian prime-minister Michael Fradkov in Kiev.

 

"Negotiations in Russia come to the end. Volumes of the gas delivered to Ukraine are confirmed - not less than 55 billion cubic meters at the price of not above 130 dollars for 1 thousand cubic meters. As soon as executors will arrive to Ukraine they will show these contracts", - V.Janukovich told.

 

Let's remind that Russia and Ukraine in January, 2006 by means of RosUkrEnergo A.G. (Switzerland) settled the relations in gas sphere. According to arrangements, the price of import gas for Ukraine increased up to 95 dollars for 1 thousand cubic meters, and the price of transit - up to 1.6 for 1 thousand cubic meters for 100 km.

 

V.Janukovich noted that earlier this question was too politized and now both parties undertake efforts to transfer it on a level of managing subjects. "Certainly, we create conditions and as they say, a normal atmosphere for our managing subjects that they can work well", - he told.

 

However shares of the joint-stock company continue to be kept in a corridor of the prices 10,8 - 11,5 - positions on Gazprom papers are kept - from purchases from 10,5 and with stop at a line of entrance.

 

RTS index

 

 

Gazprom on RTS

 

 

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