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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Tonality of FOMC instruction and also data on existing home sales will direct the further vector in market...

21:11 10/25/2006

So, after significant growth of a dollar exchange rate in the beginning of week and impossibility to continue this growth on Tuesday, moods in the market start to shift a little aside sales.

 

Let's remind that a dollar exchange rate against the European currencies is under pressure of last positive data over Eurozone countries, and also statements of separate European officials about possible toughening from some Central Banks.

 

So, unexpectedly favorable data from Germany supported significantly the European currencies. We remind that index of business moods IFO in Germany, which was published today, grew up to 105.3 in October against 104.9 in September and the forecast 104.5.

The increase in the parameter testifies to the confident economic growth in Germany. However, thus the market’s participants paid attention to the statement of IFO representative that there are no reasons to raise ECB rate above 3.5 %, and growth of single currency against the dollar above a level 1.30 will affect negatively the companies in the Eurozone.

Let's remind that IFO President Hans-Verner Zinn noted that data testify to that economic growth in Germany will proceed despite VAT increase next year.

 

And after yesterday's statement of the group economist of Bank of England Bin which, in analysts’ opinion, has considerably strengthened expectations of interest rates increase in the country at the nearest meeting of Bank of England, the rate of the British currency got support. Pound strengthening reflected favorably on a rate of the Swiss franc and euro.

 

However the main event today, on which participants of all financial market are focused, is FOMC meeting, where the level of the basic interest rates is discussed.

The result will be known at 18:15 GMT today. We remind that according to forecasts of the majority of economists, the federal funds rate will be left without change at a level of 5.25 %.

However key event today will be the publication of FOMC instruction. So, experts note that on a background of that last economic data over the USA showed that process of delay of economic growth approaches not so fast as it was supposed earlier, the extremely important for the markets there will be the general tonality of the document.

For example, if in the text of the final document there are hawkish phrases, the rate of the American currency can again continue to increase its achievements.

Besides today at 14:00 GMT data on existing home sales will be published. We notice that as the housing sector is traditionally most sensitive to a level of interest rates, and also to forecasts of the further actions of the Federal Reserve in the field of a credit policy the publication of these data can change a situation in the market noticeably.

Let's remind that economists forecast decrease in existing home sales in the USA for September by 1.6 % to 6.25 million, and the previous value was 6.30 million.

 

Another important event of this week become data on US GDP for the third quarter, which will be published on Friday. We remind that the majority of economists expect that GDP growth will make 2.1 % against 2.6 % for the previous accounting period.

 

Taking into account importance of today's events, we recommend to close opened before sale of dollar/franc and dollar/canadian rates, having fixed even small current profit.

Aggressive players can keep these positions, having placed protective stop in "break-even". However, it is necessary to notice that reaction of the market to today's events (data of existing home sales in the USA, inflationary parameters in Germany, FOMC decision, the text of the accompanying instruction) can be sharp and emotional, therefore it is impossible to exclude that the market will "lash", stopping earlier opened positions.

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD0.85770.8581
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