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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Attention of market’s participants is concentrated on forthcoming FRS meeting...

15:19 10/24/2006

So, before the next FOMC meeting, which should take place soon, activity of market’s participants remains low enough.

 

Thus in spite of the fact that economic prospects do not yet look so optimistically, the general investment picture remains dollar-positive.

 

As major factors of risk experts consider delay in industrial sector and uncertainty concerning inflation. Therefore the majority of analysts forecast that FRS would leave the interest rate without changes on results of the meeting this week.

 

Moreover, many economists believe that the federal funds rate will be kept at a level of 5.25 % up to the end of current year. As activity of the American economy decreases, as well as FRS expected, in immediate prospects it will most likely reduce inflationary pressure.

 

Thus the market’s participants wait for FOMC instruction, which, as it is expected, will suggest to players prospect of change of FRS monetary policy to the end of current and the beginning of next year.

As many market observers suppose this document can become the catalyst of movements of exchange rates up to the end of current year.

 

On this background forex participants are focused on market of energy and precious metals. We remind that from the beginning of week quotations of precious metals fell after decrease in the world oil prices. So, the gold rate dipped to a mark of 579.40 dollars for troy ounce, that is 13 dollars below a recent top.

 

It is remarkable that till now oil traders do not perceive seriously the decision of the states-OPEC members on reduction of production by 1.2 million barrels a day for maintenance of oil prices since November, 1st.

In experts’ opinion oil market, OPEC reduction will be much less than it was agreed, as there are big doubts that all members of the cartel will adhere to arrangements precisely.

Therefore, even despite the fact that representatives of Saudi Arabia inform the consumers on reduction of oil deliveries, experts wait for similar actions and from other OPEC members. While, on skepticism of players of oil market oil price continue the down tendency the second day in a row.

Let's remind that by its reductions of deliveries OPEC intends to prevent the further slipping of prices, stopping it, at least, at a level $55 a barrel.

 

We recommend to adhere to our last recommendations. It is necessary to keep the sales of dollar/franc rate opened yesterday. The purposes of these sales also hold good. Protective stop thus should be placed above a level 1.2770.

It is necessary to begin dollar/Canadian sales in case of achievement of the mentioned before levels 1.1320-30. The purpose of decrease at 1.1100 also remains in force.

 

 

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