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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Market expects FOMC decision.

13:49 10/24/2006

Negative report on budget deficit of EU put pressure upon the euro, the European currencies keep decreasing against the dollar. Moods of the market continue to remain in favor of dollar.

 

This is promoted, first of all, by drop in oil quotations despite measures made by OPEC on restriction of a daily oil production by 1,2 million barrels a day, and also fears of trading embargo of Iran from EU and the USA which can limit supply of the Iranian oil to the world market.

 

Despite that according to the refined data for 2005 the total deficit of the EU budget decreased 2,3 % of gross domestic product from 2,7 % of gross domestic product in 2004, parameters of the report showed negative tendencies in the EU countries.

 

According to Eurostat report the public debt of the EU countries in 2005 grew a little in comparison with 2004. In nine EU countries the public debt exceeded a limit making 60 % of gross domestic product.

 

On the first place on volume of a public debt among the EU countries there was Greece which debt made 107,5 % of GDP in 2005 whereas in 2004 this parameter was 108,5 % of GDP. The public debt of Italy in 2005 increased in comparison with 103,9 % of GDP in 2004 and made 106,6 % of GDP.

 

The total public debt of the EU countries in 2005 rose up to 63,2 % from total gross domestic product of these countries whereas in 2004 this parameter made 62,4 % of GDP. In the Eurozone the relation of a public debt to gross domestic product in 2005 was a little above: 70,8 % in 2005 against 69,8 % in 2004.

 

Total deficit of the EU countries still exceeds a little total deficit of 25 EU countries. Nevertheless, in 2005 total deficit of Eurozone reduced to 2,4 % from gross domestic product in comparison with 2,8 % from gross domestic product in 2004.

 

During several years deficit of Germany and France exceeded a limit of 3 % from gross domestic product. Nevertheless, in 2005 the situation changed for the better. Deficit of France in 2005 dropped to 2,9 % of GDP from 3,7 % in 2004. Deficit of Germany in 2005 reduced to 3,2 % of GDP from 3,7 % in 2004.

 

Budget deficit of Italy in 2005 continued to grow, and made 4,1 % of GDP in comparison with 3,4 % in 2004.

Budget deficit of Great Britain, which does not enter a zone of euro, the third straight year, exceeds a limit set for the EU countries. In 2005 budget deficit of this country made 3,3 % of GDP, and 3,2 % of GDP in 2004.

 

The dollar is also supported by uncertainty concerning FOMC decision on the rate, a day before this decision the market does not have common opinion in this occasion.

 

The majority of analysts tends to that the rate remains without changes, however than risk of economic stagnation.

 

In Financial Times there was published survey, according to which more than 40 % of the investment managers polled in the USA expect that within next six months FRS can raise interest rates from a current level of 5,25 %.

 

Besides the market’s attention will be focused on the brief comments accompanying FOMC decision on rates. We remind that the full minutes of the previous meeting, published on October, 11th, showed that Committee members were rather concerned by kept rates of inflation.

 

Today before FOMC decision on the rate serious movements in the market are improbable, the meeting begins today at 18-00 GMT, the publication of the minutes of the meeting takes place tomorrow at 18-15 GMT. Today it is not necessary to hurry up with opening of long-term positions, recommendations on long-term positions hold good.

 

 

 

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