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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Stock market is under pressure on decrease in oil quotations

10:27 10/24/2006

MACROECONOMICS.

 

According to agency RIA NOVOSTI on Monday on NYMEX the future tenders by the Russian export oil REBCO (Russian export blend crude oil) in electronic system of the tenders CME Globex began.

"Quotations of futures on the Russian oil were active, interest was high enough. There were not yet transactions. As a rule, at occurrence of a new brand it takes not less than three days for the conclusion of the first contract. The beginning can be named successful", - director of department of energy researches of NYMEX Daniel Brusstar told to RIA NOVOSTI.

 

Futures for the Russian oil were quoted on the average price $55,25 a barrel with delivery in January, 2007 up to $58,4 dollar a barrel with delivery in May, 2007.

 

For comparison, the prices for barrel of Brent oil on similar conditions of delivery changed in a range from $60,54 up to $63,73 dollars.

 

The federal service of state statistics published the report on housing construction in January-September, 2006.

 

In January-September 2006 292,1 thousand houses with a total area 26,0 mln. square meters were set in operation, that made 112,0 % by January-September 2005, while in January-September 2005 rate of growth of housing construction by corresponding period 2004 made 106,7 %.

 

In January-September 2006 growth of volumes of individual housing construction proceeded. Due to own and extra means the population set 87,0 thousand apartment houses with a total area 12,1 mln. square meters, that made 109,9 % by January-September, 2005.

 

In Security council of the United Nations plan to start discussion of a question on economic sanctions against Teheran in connection with its unwillingness to dispel fear of the international community concerning character of nuclear development in Iran. Expected use of sanctions against Iran can play on increase of cost of futures for Russian REBCO oil. (According to materials of RIA NOVOSTI)

 

As it is expected, the draft resolution of Security council of the United Nations concerning Iran will be discussed on October, 25th though originally it was expected that it would be already widespread this week.

 

In Androsov's opinion, prospective restrictions on a commodity exchange of Iran will reduce ingress of Iranian crude oil to the European markets that will force consumers to search for alternative equivalent.

 

"On its chemical compound the Russian REBCO mix is the closest to Iranian one", - Androsov noted.

 

MARKET’S GENERAL ESTIMATION.

 

On Friday the Russian share market opened with growth on a wide spectrum of papers after oil when on Thursday OPEC made decision to decrease quotas on oil production by 1,2 million barrels a day instead of expected 1 million. However, oil price has grown slightly because of skepticism of the market’s participants concerning reduction of production as OPEC arrangements are not always implemented in practice, and players decided to fix profit therefore shares of the companies went downwards. Besides before FRS meeting planned next week on Tuesday, the market’s participants preferred to desist from active actions. As a result, MICEX index fell 0,84 % and made 1442,83 points by the end of the tenders.

 

RTS index decreased 0,5 % and finished the tenders at 1630,47 points. The leader of falling among the oil companies became Tatneft (-2,38 %), the others showed negative dynamics: Surgutneftegaz (-2,16 %), LUKOIL (-1,40 %), Rosneft (-0,75 %), Gazpromneft (-1,32 %). Gazprom shares were down 0,97 %. RAO "United Energy Systems" dipped 0,65 % after the statement of the President at a meeting with ministers that generating capacityies do not satisfy rates of economic growth. Leaders of growth were shares of the companies of a consumer sector, which managed to resist moods of indexes: Baltica (+2,30 %), Razgulyai (+1,28 %), Pava (+0,56 %). Sberbanks shares also rose (+0,33 %). Other blue chips on MICEX finished day varied: Norilsk Nickel (-1,21 %), Severstal (+0,31 %), MTS (+0,41 %), MGTS (-0,36 %), Rostelecom (-1,43 %). The volume of the tenders on MICEX made $2251,39 million.. In classical section of RTS the turnover was fixed at $25,64 million.

 

However on Monday in the market there was observed drop in quotations. Despite OPEC decision to lower daily production, oil quotations keep being at the minimal annual levels, as the reason for this is increase in stocks of mineral oil and crude oil in the largest oil consumer - the USA and forecasts for soft winter.

 

GAZPROM.

 

Despite small decrease dynamics of the JSC shares remains positive therefore we continue to hold positions from 10,5, stop at a line of entrance.

 

RTS index

 

 

Gazprom on RTS

 

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