After unexpected for many market’s participants dollar rise on Thursday, Friday trade was in an atmosphere of consolidation.

Let's remind\ that a fundamental reason for continuation of correction on Thursday became the publication of Philadelphia FED index which on a background of forecasts of growth of the parameter up to 7.0 points, unexpectedly decreased in October of this year up to -0.7 point.

Besides experts noted that decrease in the index the second straight month was below a zero mark, it is an early signal of recession in the region.

The talks which appeared after the given publication about that at FOMC meeting, planned next week, the decision not about increase of the key interest rate, and, on the contrary, about its decrease can be made.

Thus, however, many experts noted that some significant components of the report, such as indicators of new orders, transportation and employment testify even to some growth.

Let's remind that the index of the paid prices in October made 32.0 against 38.1 in September, the employment index reduced to 9.4 from 10.7, the index of new orders grew up to 13.4 against -1.3 in September, and the index of transportation reduced from +5.3 up to -6.8.

As a result, despite drop in a general meaning of the index this month, many important components of the report have noticeably improved.

After the publication of these important data last week, focus of players’ attention is smoothly shifted to next FOMC meeting, which takes place on forthcoming week.

Thus in spite of the fact that now in the market many there are different assumptions concerning the forthcoming decision, however the majority of economists does not expect change of a level of interest rates.

The dollar is supported, after its significant growth on Thursday and stability of the American currency at current levels, by positive expectations of growth of ISM index after the publication of positive components in the report of a business situation in industrial sector of the USA.

Let's remind that many experts now expect growth of ISM index from 52.9 in September up to 54.0 in October.

On the other hand, some pressure upon a rate of the European currencies against dollar is rendered with unexpected statements of some officials.

Let's remind that on Friday Minister of Economics of Germany Gloss declared that on a background of a low rate of inflation in Germany the European central bank will not hurry up to raise interest rates.

Besides players watch closely a situation in energy market. Doubts of oil traders that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will really reduce production to 1.2 million barrels a day as it was agreed in the end of the last week, leads to that oil quotations have continued reduction.

Let's remind that oil prices lost already 25 % from the record level $78.40 a barrel, reached on July, 14th. Their further decrease - the extremely undesirable script for the states-OPEC members.

We also remind that the decision on reduction by 4.4 % of oil production was made on last Friday at a meeting in Qatar. This decision was based on volume of the transferred oil the last month by members of the cartel, instead of quotas, and will take action since November, 1st of this year.

As a result we recommend to adhere to our Friday recommendations: the players, opened dollar sales last week, should keep them down to the announcement of FOMC decision on rates on Tuesday.

And these sales should be fixed two- three hours before the announcement of the decision. And though the further vector of movement in many respects will depend on a tonality of statements of FOMC members at press conference after the meeting, possible continuation of dollar growth will not be long-term.

Other players, while being outside the market, should continue to keep a waiting position. We remind that expected by us recoil of the dollar/franc rate to a level 1.2660 will create optimum conditions for opening of long-term sales.

Thus the first purpose of sales becomes levels 1.2410-20.

The situation on dollar/canadian pair, except for results of FRS decision on rates also depends on position in fuel market. So, the consent of all OPEC members since November, 1st reduce oil production by 4.4 % can lead to the further development of decrease in the rate.

Optimum for opening of long-term sales still seems to us levels 1.1320-30. Therefore the players, being while outside the market, should keep a waiting position before their achievement.