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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Long-felt dollar falling expected by us is being realized...

19:14 10/20/2006

So, yesterday's trade was in an atmosphere of dollar sales. The bear moods, prevailing on all spectrum of forex, could not be affected even by positive data on jobless claims in the USA for a week by 14.10, which were much better than the forecast and reached a minimum level since July.

Let's remind that value of the parameter made 299 thousand, at the forecast 308 thousand.And the previous value is revised from 308 thousand to 309 thousand.

 

Another indicator - the index of leading indicators in the USA made +0.1 % for September, at the forecast of +0.3 %, and the previous value -0.2 %. However it could not affect the total situation in the market.

 

And the additional occasion for expansion of sales of the American currency market’s participants see in the publication of Philadelphia FED index in the USA for October which not only was considerably below the expected level, but also a second month in a row it is in negative area.

Let's remind that value of the parameter made -0.7, at the forecast 7.0, and the previous value -0.4.

After the publication of these data in the market again there were speculations that the following FOMC step at the meeting, which takes place next week, can become not increase of the key interest rate, and, on the contrary, its decrease.

 

Thus analysts mention that some important components of the report, such as indicators of new orders, transportations and employment testify to some growth.

So, subindex of paid prices in October made 32.0 against 38.1 in September, subindex of employment reduced to 9.4 from 10.7, subindex of new orders grew up to 13.4 against -1.3 in September, and subindex of transportation dipped from +5.3 up to-6.8.

As a result, in opinion of many experts despite decrease in a general meaning of the index this month many significant components of the report have noticeably improved.

In their opinion, as a whole it is possible to consider the published report positive. Besides data of the report give the basis to expect ISM growth from 52.9 in September up to 54.0 in October.

 

In experts’ opinion, the American currency is under pressure of growth of rates of precious metals, and also strengthening of raw currencies - Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar.

A rate of euro is supported against dollar, in opinion of the same analysts, by the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce oil production by1.2 million barrels a day since November, 1st.

 

We wait for continuation of a descending wave of dollar. However, it is most likely that before renewal of this movement the dollar/franc will win back to a level 1.2660, whence opening of long-term sales seems optimum.

The first purpose of sales become levels 1.2410-20.

The dollar/Canadian set up more resolutely downwards, however here again we do not exclude significant recoil of the rate upward, to a level 1.1320-30. From here sales of the rate can be the most effective.

As a result, those who opened yesterday dollar sales should keep them, other players should wait for recoil of rates to the stated levels then to open long-term sales of the rates.

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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