Yesterday the dollar tested pressure after issue of rather weak data on the US economy.

Despite the positive tendency of the labor market of the USA dollar tested a sharp impulse of sales yesterday in the beginning of the American trading session. The catalyst of it were data about decrease in activity in the US economy in September of current year, according to indexes of Leading Indicators from independent analytical organization The Conference Board.

Contrary to the market’s expectations the leading indicators showed growth only by 0,1 %, against predicted value of 0,3 %. Components of the index on housing market also decreased to -0,17 % against previous data -0,05 %, and on production to -0,12 % against previous one -0,06 %.

Moods against the dollar were warmed up by data about drop in Philadelphia FED index. The index fell to -0,7 % against -0,4 % the last month that became the first reduction of a parameter since April, 2003. Figures below zero means decrease. However results on new orders and sales improved in a monthly ratio.

Component of the index - Paid Prices - decreased from 38,1 in September up to 32,0 in October, and the received prices reached 17,8 against 21,6 in September together with the indicator of employment from 10,7 up to 9,4.

In September numbers on the given region were below than in other areas and below a national ISM index.

In the near future the dollar can test pressure of oil market. Yesterday at the extraordinary summit of the countries of the Near East and South America, entering into oil cartel OPEC, the arrangement on decrease in a day time quota on oil production by 1,2 million barrels of oil a day, for prevention of the further falling of oil prices was achieved.

This decision comes into force since November, 1st of this year. Decrease in production will be based on volume of the oil produced by members of cartel in the last month instead of on quotas as minister of oil of the United Arab Emirates Mohammed Al-Khamli, who becomes OPEC President in 2007, declared.

Growth of oil stocks in the USA, a quiet storm season in Atlantic and easing geopolitical disputes around the Iranian nuclear program caused reduction of prices on oil futures by 25 % from a record level $78,40 a barrel in July. Drop in prices below $60 caused concern among OPEC members, and the cartel made a decision to protect the price limit, which exceeded twice a target level of the last year.

"The unity of opinions of the countries-OPEC members in the decision to reduce production impresses, and these measures will most likely be effective", - John Votrein, vice-president of consulting agency Purvin and Gertz Inc., Singapore says.

It was expected that drop in volumes of production would make 1 million barrels about what the last two weeks ministers of the countries-OPEC members said. Reduction was supported by OPEC largest manufacturer, Saudi Arabia, which earlier was against so radical measures. However Saudi Arabia agreed to reduce volume of production by 380 thousand barrels a day. The position of the largest player – OPEC member in oil market played most likely a key role in OPEC decision to limit production.

Despite yesterday's dollar rally the quotations nevertheless continue to be within the limits of a sideways - in a zone of balance. It is most likely that traders will not show special activity and change cardinally a picture to the market tillFOMC decision on FRS rate, which will be already published in the beginning of next week. The previous recommendations remain in force.