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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Yesterday's block of fundamental news did not affect forex.

11:47 10/19/2006

Unexpectedly positive data on housing market supported the dollar. Data on housing starts showed growth of total housing starts, after four-monthly recession of activity in this segment of economy and also after the last month these data demonstrated a record minimum for three years.

 

According to the report of Department of Commerce, published yesterday, housing starts were up 5,9 % up to an annual level 1,772 million against 1,674 million in August. The accelerated rates of construction in the Middle West and the South compensated decrease in Northeast and the West. Building permits showed reduction the eighth straight month up to a minimum level for almost five years.

 

The last month builders prepared the ground for new projects after drop in prices and attractive offers reduced stocks of unsold houses. The index of builders’ confidence this month grew for the first time for a year, basically, owing to expectations of growing sales the next six months.

Analysts believe that falling in sector of housing, similar, comes to an end. That accordingly should affect the final decision on FRS rate at FOMC meeting, which takes place next week.

September report on consumer prices CPI showed that reduction of energy prices caused decrease in the indicator of inflation in the consumer market, decrease was basically due to petroleum prices.

However Core CPI remained constant, it shows that FRS fears about inflationary pressure get additional support, and it in turn raises probability of that Committee members can consider growth of inflationary parameters in acceptance of decision on the rate -  to lift FRS rate.

The dollar was supported by oil market, the prices for December futures again fell to a mark $57 a barrel, after EIA report on growth of stocks of oil and mineral oil. Stocks of crude oil in the USA grew 5,1 million barrels last week, EIA has informed today. It exceeded the analysts’ expectations forecast growth of 1,3 million of barrels.

In the center of attention of oil market now there is the oil cartel - OPEC.

Ministers of the countries- OPEC members will gather today in Qatar to solve the problem on reduction of daily volume of production by 1 million barrels for struggle against reduction of oil prices, fallen from a July maximum $78,40.

In connection with the next falling of oil market OPEC decision can be more resolute. We remind that earlier it was said that OPEC can reduce a day time quota of oil production inside cartel by 4 %.

 

For the expired day position of currencies changed a little, today euro and pound sterling practically won back yesterday's losses. Yesterday's recommendations while hold good.

If the dollar overcomes levels 1,2480 on euro and 1,8500 on pound sterling there will be a good precondition for development of the third strongest wave of a trend, from these levels there are possible to set postponed shorts. 1 order with the purpose - 1,8375 on pound sterling and 1,2360 on euro, 2 order with the purpose 1,2250 on euro, and 1,8205 on pound sterling

 

 

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