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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD "X" hour approaches: time of beginning of long-term dollar sales on all spectrum of forex...

11:47 10/19/2006

So, after yesterday's key publication - data on consumer prices in the USA for September, dollar made the next attempt of growth against the European currencies which, as a result, was ineffectual.

 

Let's remind that a consumer price index in the USA made -0.5 % for September, at the forecast -0.3 % for a month, and the previous value of +0.2 % for a month.

And a consumer price index except for food and energy prices in the USA made +0.2 % for September, at the forecast of +0.2 % for a month, and the previous value of +0.2 % for a month.

As a result the general CPI in annual expression made +2.1 % y/y, and core - +2.9 %.

Experts, analyzing these data, notice, that the reason of decrease in the general parameter became falling of energy prices -7.2 %. We remind that fuel prices decreased 6.1 %, and petroleum - 13.5 %.

Thus, because of a rise in fruit and vegetables prices, food prices were up 0.3 %. And the prices for clothes grew 0.6 %. At the same time prices for health services rose 0.3 %.

 

Another important report, reflecting a situation in building sector of the American economy, was also as a whole positive for the dollar.

Let's remind that housing starts in the USA made 1.772 million for September, at the forecast 1.645 million, and the previous value 1.665 million.

And the building permits in the USA made 1.619 million for September, at the forecast 1.710 million, and the previous value 1.722 million.

After the publication experts noted that data on building permits is less volatile than the housing starts as weather conditions do not influence on them.

As a result analysts are inclined to believe that the parameter on housing starts in the further can fall below a key level of 1.60 million that testifies to acceleration of decrease in activity in construction sphere.

Let's notice that last months participants of the financial markets trace a situation in energy market extremely closely.

Let's remind that yesterday, on a background of expectations of the market’s participants that the governmental message will show increase during the third week of the American inventories, oil quotations remained practically constant.

Experts forecast that the last week crude oil stocks can increase 1.5 million barrels. We also remind that earlier prices decreased on a background of skepticism of OPEC members concerning the promise of decrease of production.

Today for development of measures after three-monthly reduction of prices OPEC will hold a meeting in Qatar.

While, on results of yesterday's trading session November future for crude oil fell in price 14 cents up to $58.79 a barrel. As a result the price for the future decreased 7 % in comparison with a year ago or 25 % from a record maximum $ 78.40, reached on July, 14th.

 

Today the market’s participants will watch closely following publications:

- Jobless claims in the USA for a week by 14.10 at 12:30 GMT. The forecast is 308 thousand, and the previous value was 308 thousand;

- Leading indicators in the USA for September at 14:00 GMT. The forecast is +0.3 %, and the previous value was -0.2 %;

- Philadelphia FRB index in the USA for October at 16:00 GMT. The forecast 7.0, the previous value -0.4.

 

We remind that we still are sure of fast dollar long-term falling. The most courageous players can begin cautious sales (minimum lots) already from current levels. The first purposes of sales become levels 1.2540 for dollar/franc, and 1.1260 for dollar/canadian.

Strategic players should wait for more reliable signals of change of moods. While it is impossible to exclude small continuation of dollar growth before realization of a long-term down wave.

While it is necessary to keep position outside the market.

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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