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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Stock market was corrected after strong growth.

11:47 10/18/2006

MACROECONOMICS.

 

The federal service of the state statistics published the report on a condition of foreign trade in January - August, 2006.

 

In January-August 2006 foreign trade turnover of Russia made, according to Bank of Russia, 295,8 bln..dollars (128,9 % by January-August 2005), including export - 198,0 bln..dollars (129,5 %), import - 97,8 bln..dollars (127,6 %). The trade balance remains positive, 100,2 bln..dollars (in January-August 2005 - 76,2 bln..dollars).

 

Index of industrial production made 104,2 % in January-September 2006 in comparison with January-September 2005, - 104,1 % in September 2006 in comparison with September 2005, - 100,4 % in comparison with August 2006.

 

The federal service of the state statistics represents also data about volume of production, a turnover, stocks of mineral oil and consumer prices on them from October, 2 till October, 8th, 2006, according to weekly monitoring of production of mineral oil, change of their sales and stocks, consumer prices on them for a week from October, 2 till October, 8th, 2006.

 

Petroleum production - 646 thousand tons, that is 4,5 % less than the previous data, primary oil refining - 4286 thousand tons, 3.1 % more than for the previous period, diesel fuel production 1190 thousand tons, remains constant.

 

Relative density of oil export in total amount of the Russian export in January-August 2006 made 35,6 %, in fuel and energy export - 52,7 % (in January-August 2005, accordingly, 34,1 % and 53,8 %). In August 2006 the average actual export price for oil made 463,5 US dollars for 1 ton (101,8 % by July 2006). The price of the world market for Urals oil in August 2006 made 502,4 US dollars for 1 ton (99,5 % by July 2006).

According to RIA NOVOSTI, Russia is going to hold a part of its currency accumulation in yens. Japan welcomes intention of Russia to get yens for its currency reserves, Minister of Finance Koji Omi declared on Tuesday at press conference in Tokyo. After Omi’s statement the yen rate to dollar at Tokyo stock exchange rose slightly, having made 119,03 yens for $1.

 

The volume of gold and exchange currency reserves of the Russian Federation as of October, 6th made $267,9 billion. Now approximately 45 % in structure of currency reserves of the Russian Federation falla for dollars, 45 % - for euro, 10 % - for pounds sterling.

 

MARKET’S GENERAL ESTIMATION.

 

On Tuesday the Russian share market continued consolidation. Positive news about a rise in oil price in the raw markets were compensated by the statistical data over the USA, testifying to strengthening of inflationary risks that increased probability of increase of FRS discount rate. As a result, MICEX index decreased 0,98 % and was closed at value 1424,1 points. RTS index dipped 0,16 % and finished the tenders at a mark 1609,47 points.

 

The leader of growth on MICEX were Rosneft shares, having grown 2,61 % after an issue of information that the company plans to create the joint enterprise with Chinese company SNPC for geological search and prospecting works in territory of Russia. Papers of other oil-and-gas companies were closed varied: LUKOIL +0,66 %, Tatneft -1,32 %, Surgutneftegaz +0,41 %, Gazprom - 1,27 %. Owing to reduction of prices on nonferrous metals in the world markets, Norilsk Nickel shares fell in price 1,27 % on MICEX. Other most liquid shares on MICEX were closed in negative area: RAO "United Energy Systems" -1,6 %, Sberbank -2,63 %, Rostelecom -1,25 %, MTS -1,13 %. The volume of the tenders on MICEX made $2920,22 million, the turnover in RTS was fixed at a level $37,9 million.

 

GAZPROM.

 

After strong growth on the eve the shares of the joint-stock company are consolidated above a level 10.0.

Recommendations remain former - we keep purchases from 10,5 - stop at a line of an entrance.

 

RTS index

 

Gazprom on RTS

 

 

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