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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Data of core CPI are in focus of market’s attention

11:47 10/18/2006

So, a series of publications of the important economic indicators led to that after fixing of a half-year record on last Friday, the rate of the American currency continued smooth drop, remaining within the limits of a trading range of last week.

Let's remind that yesterday's data were quite contradictory. So, the dollar was supported by high value of PPI except for food and energy prices in the USA.

Thus participants of the market were puzzled a little bit by unexpectedly low value of the index of industrial production in the USA.

So, the producer price index in the USA made -1.3 % for September, at the forecast -0.7 %, and the previous value of +0.1 %. The parameter was not only almost twice below the forecast, but also reached a minimum level since April, 2003. Economists consider the main reason of so sharp decrease in value of the indicator a current falling of petroleum prices. We notice that only in September drop in prices made 22.2 % that became record monthly decrease for all history of observation of dynamics of this parameter.

And producer price index except for food and energy prices in the USA for September was three times above forecasts, having been equal to +0.6 %. Besides value of the parameter was maximal since the beginning of 2005. We remind that the average forecast of experts was equal to +0.2 %, and the previous value was -0.4 %.

Another surprise for the market’s participants became publication of TICS data. We remind that the volume of foreign purchases of the American assets in August not only exceeded analysts’ forecasts, but also reached record-breaking high level.

So, value of the parameter was +116.8 billion dollars, at the forecast +48.0, and the previous value +32.9.

Thus foreign investors bought the American securities on $119.5 billion, foreign institutes got securities on $30.1 billion, private investors - on $89.4 while the American accounts purchased foreign securities on $2.7.

Over the countries the picture was the following: Japan bought Treasuries on $7.6 billion, China - on $8.7 billion, Great Britain - $11.1 billion, and OPEC - $1.7 billion.

 

The index of industrial production in the USA for September made -0.6 %, at the forecast -0.1 %, that became minimal level since September of the last year, was below forecasts. And the previous value is revised from -0.1 % up to 0.0 %.

And the capacity utilization in the USA made 81.9 for September, at the forecast 82.3. Thus the previous value is revised from 82.4 up to 82.5.

However it is necessary to consider as key data of week today's publications at 12:30 GMT:

- A consumer price index in the USA for September. The forecast -0.3 % for a month, the previous value of +0.2 % for a month;

- A consumer price index except for food and energy prices in the USA for September. The forecast of +0.2 % for a month, the previous value of +0.2 % for a month;

- Housing starts in the USA for September. The forecast 1.645 million, the previous value 1.665 million;

- Building permits in the USA for September. The forecast 1.710 million, the previous value 1.722 million.

 

Let's remind, that the most important in a today's situation in the market will be core value a consumer price index.

So, value above forecasts (+0.2 %) will strengthen forecasts about renewal of a cycle of increases from FRS and by that will support the further growth of the dollar.

 

While it is recommended to be outside the market.

 

 

 

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