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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Comments of FRS high-ranking officials put pressure upon dollar.

11:48 10/17/2006

The dollar adjusted a little after Friday rally. Uncertain notes in comments of FRS high-ranking officials about current economic situation cooled a little bit bull mood on the dollar.

 

San Francisco FRB President Janet Yellen expressed an idea that FRS would not probably change direction in the monetary policy and would leave FRS rate at a former level at FOMC meeting in the end of month.

 

She also informed that expects gradual reduction of inflation, especially on a background of "decent delay" of economic growth. Nevertheless, as she said inflation remains "dangerously high".

 

Saint Louis FRB President William Pool did express his idea so definitely. He told that according to the current economic forecast, chances of the rate’s increase are equal, FOMC members can raise rates as well as lower them.

 

On a background of these statements traders started to close long-term positions on the dollar. Positive releases on NY Empire State index, which showed significant growth of 22,92 in October against 13,84 in September, did not help the dollar to hold at positions of closing of yesterday's American trading session.

 

OPEC comments on a condition of world oil demand last quarter of current year also affected decrease in dollar positions.

 

Oil cartel OPEC reduced the forecast of growth of world oil demand in 2006 by 100 thousand barrels a day on a background of prompt drop in prices since July, having declared that delay of world economy influences negatively on a level of demand.

 

Besides the policy of the world governments, directed on increase of oil stocks and search of oil substitutes, also can put pressure upon the future levels of demand.

 

As a result, according to OPEC forecasts it is expected that growth of world demand for oil will grow by 1.0 million barrels or 1.2 % and will make on average 84.2 million barrels a day.

 

OPEC data for the first 3 quarters of current year demonstrated that warm weather, a rise in oil prices and rather low prices for natural gas promoted reduction in demand for oil everywhere in the countries of the basic consumers of oil. For 2007 OPEC kept the forecast of world demand unchanged at a level 1.3 million barrels a day.

 

Today the whole block of significant news both on EU, and over the USA is expected.

 

Over Europe there are ZEW indexes. One of the most authoritative research centers of Europe.

Except for this the issue of fundamental indicators over the USA - inflationary index PPI, week retail sales Redbook, data on industrial production and capacity utilization is expected.

 

Traders also will watch closely data on TICS investments - after sharp recession of inflow of the capital in August up to $32.9 billion - this parameter is expected up to $ 56,0 billion.

 

Today if in the block of news there is a positive on all economic indicators the dollar can punch the bottom border of a sideways. However today it is not necessary to hurry up with opening of positions as the situation in the forex continues to remain uncertain.

 

 

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USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
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EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
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