Having overcome key borders of ranges on last Friday, dollar remains stable since the beginning of week.

Unexpected news for the market became the statement of the representative of the Russian Central Bank about possible transfer of a part of gold and exchange currency reserves into the Japanese yen.

The dollar was supported a little by the publication of NY Empire State index which rose up to 22.92 in October, at the average forecast 11, and the previous value 13.84.

In experts’ opinion the reason of growth of the index became increase in volume of transportations, and also growth of inventories, and improvement of a situation in sphere of employment.

So, according to the report, the employment index in October grew to 19.39 against 12.47 in September, the paid prices index decreased to 30.83 from 41.00 in September. Thus, the number of those, who noted increase of the prices, decreased from 43 % in September to 34 % in October.

Thus the index of new orders decreases the second month in a row and in October made 11.75 against 13.96 in September, and, according to survey, 45 % of the companies expect greater investments in 2007 in equipment, which is not connected with computers.

However, the index of expectations, estimating prospects for 6 months, fell to 30.17 in October from 35.20 in September. Except for this 17 % of the surveyed assumed an opportunity of deterioration of situation in the future.

Though the publication of the extremely important data is planned for today, however it is necessary to consider as key release of this week publication of CPI data. These data, in opinion of the majority of experts, will determine the further steps in sphere of FRS monetary policy.

Let's remind that after so significant decrease in oil quotations, many participants of the market expect lower data on inflation. However thus some experts do not exclude risks of issue of stronger data than it was expected.

So, in analysts’ opinion if value of core CPI exceeds 0.3 % and furthermore 0.4 % the probability of new increases of rates will be rather high. We remind that the average forecast of value is now 0.2 %.

It is remarkable that, concerning this theme, Saint Louis FRB President William Pool declared yesterday that if inflation is kept at a present level or increase, he would support the further increase of rates. Pool also added that at present inflation remains high enough.

Today at 12:30 GMT in focus of players’ attention there will be following publications of data:

- PPI in the USA for September. The forecast -0.7 % for a month, the previous value of +0.1 % for a month, +3.7 % for a year;

- PPI except for food and energy prices in the USA for September. The forecast of +0.2 % for a month, the previous value -0.4 % for a month, +0.9 % for a year.

The extremely important for players will be TICS data - net foreign purchases - at 13:00 GMT in the USA for July. The forecast +48.0 billion dollars, the previous value +32.9 billion dollars.

And then, at 13:15 GMT participants of the market will know value of the index of industrial production in the USA for September. The forecast is -0.1 %, and the previous value was -0.1 %.

At the same time data on capacity utilization in the USA for September will be known. The forecast 82.3, and the previous value was 82.4.

Taking into account importance of publications of CPI data, we suggest while to keep position outside the market. We notice that the probability of significant movement against a dollar exchange rate is still kept.