So, Friday trade was in connection with publications of current statistics of the first world economy. So after cautious dollar sales, the reason of which became dissappointing data on US retail sales for September and data on import and export prices, market’s players moods changed cardinally after publication of preliminary value of Univercity of Michgan sentiment for October.

Let’s remind that retail sales in the USA for September made -0.4%, at the forecast +0.1%, and previous value +0.1%. Retail sales ex auto in the USA for September made -0.5%, at the forecast -0.1%, and previous value +0.2%.

Retail sales exluding petroleum made +0.6%. sharp decrrease of the main indicator connected with falling of oil quotations.

Let’s remind that expeccially actively consumers bought in September clothes (+3.0%), sports items (+1.1%), building materials (+0.6%), electronics (+0.2%), and also furniture (+0.2%).

Data on import and export prices were also unexpectedly low. Import price index in the USA for September made -2.1% at the forecast +0.8%. And export price index in the USA for September made -0.5%, at the forecast +0.4%.

And the of preliminary value of Univercity of Michgan sentiment for October was maximal for last 14 months. Thus growth of the index is the second month in  a row. The value of the indicator made 92.3, at the forecast 86.0, and previous value 85.4. And the subindex of expectations made 83.4 vs. 78.2 a month ago,  and subindex of current conditions increased up to 106.1 from 96.6. Greater drop in inflation expectations is connceted with sharp falling of oil prices. Five-years old inflation expectations made 3.1%, and one-years - 2.9%.  These data were percieved positively by the players and led to intensive purchases of the American currency on all spectrum of foreign exchange market.

Another release, informing on data of inventories in the USA for August, was at the level of forecasts and did not cause any significant reaction of the market. The previous value of the indicator was revised from 0.6% to +0.7%.

Today at 12:30 GMT there will be published NY Empire State index in the USA for October, which will not be ingnored by the market. The forecast of the indicator is 12.4, the previous value was 13.8.

Reaction to this indicator will be significant as can confirm or deny the “truth” of Friday movement.

As a whole Friday dollar rise can be symbolic and signal on a new stage of greenback strengthening vs. Main competitors. However, taking into account closeness of key levels of resistance, we recommend to be off the market.