The dollar yesterday again became stronger after the publication of the report of FOMC meeting for September, 20th, having moderated hawkish character.

The majority of FOMC members expect gradual decrease in inflation on a background of delay of economic growth. And still, from their point of view, prospect of a price situation is in atmosphere of uncertainty as the probability of acceleration of a rise in prices is still great.

However, the drop in energy price noted recently and other signs of delay of economic growth, alongside with some delay of core inflation indicated "some improvement of prospects of a price situation therefore in September it was easier for FRS authorities to make a decision on a monetary policy rather than in August when the committee decision was accompanied by especially big risk.

In September the Federal reserve system of the USA the second time in a row left the key interest rate at a level of 5,25 %, having judged that delay of economic growth will lead to decrease in inflation which while remains much more above preferable range from FRS point of view of ???.

Though the majority of Committee members expects gradual reduction of core inflation, prospects of it are connected with essential uncertainty", - is specified in reports. The majority of committee members expressed opinion that "probability of acceleration of a rise in prices is still higher rather than probability of its delay.

The market once again supported the dollar, after small correction, quotations of November oil futures yesterday on NYMEX tested an absolute annual minimum - price $57.45 a barrel. A special position of Saudi Arabia concerning reduction of a daily quota on oil production has broken unity of positions of supporters of reduction of production in OPEC.

OPEC Ministers agree in the decision to reduce delivery by 1 million barrels a day, but their opinions concerning how it can be reached, divided. They should decide whether to reduce deliveries from a mark of nominal volume of produced oil (28 million barrels a day) or from the real volume produced in September (27.5 million barrels a day).

Today the market expects the next key event of the month - data of Department of Commerce on the foreign economic balance of the USA with the basic developed countries.

Predicted deficit of $66,7 billion becomes the second in sizes in the list of records. July deficit grew up to $68 billion as import volumes from China were kept near a historical maximum.

Reduction of prices of imported crude oil, falling of demand from the American consumers and weaker dollar will help to reduce trade deficit the nearest months, economists say. The growing economy of Europe and Asia also stimulates purchases of office equipment made in the USA.

Today there will be an opportunity to open positions for dollar, in case of positive releases on trade balance. If according to the report of Department of Commerce trade deficit decreases below the previous value and below expected values shorts on euro and pound sterling on dollar can be opened. We remind that data are issued at 12-30 GMT.

The same strategy, we open 2 lots, 1 lot on the near purpose at 40 points, 2 lot is fixed in break-even. Stop as always is not closer than 100 points.