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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Market moods develop gradually in favor of dollar.

14:53 09/11/2006

On Friday the dollar again became stronger. The dollar was supported by stabilization of oil market.

In the end of Friday session in NYMEX oil prices dipped to $66,2 for barrel. Increase in distillates stocks in the USA, according to EIA last data, before winter season, and also signs of easing of the conflict around the Iranian oil program calmed oil dealers.

Pressure upon the oil market also decreased due to easing of fears of faults in oil deliveries by the main world suppliers. The last weeks the largest British oil-extracting company British Petroleum declared about earlier terms of restoration of oil production in Alaska.

Today in Vienna there begins the summit of the countries of participants of oil cartel OPEC, however in threshold of this meeting oil ministers of the majority of OPEC countries have already declared that reduction of oil prices does not become the reason of restriction of day time quotas on oil production by the countries-members of the cartel.

On Friday the US currency became stronger and after the decision of Bank of Japan to leave a discount rate at a former level of 0,25 % per annum, contrary to expectations of the market. The Bank of Japan executive Toshihiko Fukui said that increase of the rate by Bank of Japan would be gradual not to make the Japanese import a disadvantage to the goods from the USA and Europe.

The European currencies are under pressure against the dollar of negative expectations over France and Great Britain.

Industrial outputs in France reduced unexpectedly in July the second month in a row because of decline of production of cars and electronic technical equipment. Production at factories, mines and in a municipal services of France reduced 1,3 % in June, Insee informed today. Economists expected that growth would make 0,3 %, according to the average forecast of 28 economists polled by Bloomberg News agency. June data were revised downwardly from 0,0 % to -0,1 %.

Economic growth in France and other countries of Eurozone has, probably, reached the peak in first half of current year as the record oil prices and strengthening of the euro rate have lowered purchasing capacity of consumers and have reduced volumes of export. France, the country with the third largest economy in Europe, grew at maximal rates for more than 5 years in the second quarter owing to increase in corporate investments and growth of demand in Europe.

Over Great Britain the consumer price index grew 2,4 % y/y in August, as well as in July, according to the average forecast of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News agency. The office of national statistics will publish the report tomorrow at 12.30 Moscow time.

On August, 3rd the Bank of England raised the key discount rate by 0,25 % up to 4,75 % for strengthening of control over inflation, which is warmed up by high oil prices and maximal economic growth for last two years. Investors count that the rate of Bank of England will be raised{increased} in it{this} to year up to 5 %, and some economists approve{confirm}, that one more increase later can be demanded.

This week the whole series of the important news is expected. Among them it is necessary to allocate reports on trading balance of the USA and EU, the first takes place tomorrow, on September, 12th, and the second on Friday on September, 15th.

Today also it is necessary to pay attention to statements of Boston FRB President K.Minehan and Saint Louis FRB President W.Pool at NABE conference.

Moods in the market prevail more in favor of dollar, breaking out of the bottom border of a sideways by the first wave of downtrend on euro and pound sterling characterizes this tendency. However it is necessary to wait for the further development of a trend, now in the technical plan it is a high time for correction. Therefore today we remain outside the market.

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