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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Yesterday's rally of quotations ended a draw.

14:24 08/25/2006

Yesterday on a background of varied news the eurodollar rate made good overturn in style of the Russian-American switchback. In the beginning of the European session data over Germany were not so negative as ZEW indexes, which were issued on the eve, so they gave an impulse to euro purchases against dollar.

 

It is necessary to note that after rather negative data on ZEW indexes the market expected falling of IFO indexes. However current indexes were not so pessimistic as it was expected.

 

According to IFO institute the index of a business climate in Germany dipped to 105.0 in August against 105.6 in July due to some deterioration of expectations for the nearest months, however analysts at the institute added that economic rise "remains firm".

The published data were close to the economic forecast, made 104.9. The index of estimation of the current economic situation, reflecting present conditions, remained at a former level of 108.6 in August, and the index of business expectations went down to 101.5 in comparison with 102.6 in July.

 

 

Making comments on drop in the index of a business climate in Germany, IFO representatives declared: "Weakened expectation the following six months became the reason of decrease".

 

After the publication of IFO report the euro added almost 100 points, however already in the beginning of the American session, after an issue of reports over the USA eurodollar quotations were adjusted at the initial position.

 

The dollar was supported by week data on jobless claims and expectation of rigid statements in Ben Bernanke's speech on a symposium of Federal Reserve System. In analysts’ opinion higher, than it was expected rates of inflation can make FOMC to lift federal funds rates again at the next Committee meeting.

 

Let's remind that earlier FRB President Michael Moskow stated an idea that FRS will most likely increase the rate, by virtue of that the level of current inflation can exceed a target level.

 

Yesterday according to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial jobless claims reduced 1000 up to 313000 for a week, which ended on August, 19th. Four-week moving average, more volatile parameter, rose up to 315 250 from 311 750. Analysts expected growth of claims by 2000. In market ‘s opinion stable growth of workplaces and growing wages will help to support consumer sentiment and will soften the outlined economic downturn.

 

 

If positive data over the USA helped the dollar to return to the prices of opening of yesterday's European session negative data of housing market of the USA and durable orders did not allow the dollar to become stronger below.

 

Housing market again showed cooling. New home sales in the USA reduced, and the index of unsold houses showed record decline.

 

 

According to Department of Commerce, new home purchases, which make 15 % of all housing market, reduced to 4,3 % up to 1,072 million. It is below expectations of the market of 33000.

 

According to Department of Commerce Durable orders reduced 2.4 % in July that is connected with drop in demand for cars and planes. The level of claims for durable goods decreased $5.3 billion the last month. Data were worse than the preliminary estimation, according to which the level of orders should have remained at a former level.

 

 

As a result, the disposition of currencies in the market has changed a little since yesterday - quotations continue to be kept within the limits of a sideways. Today the market can be subject to chaotic movements during Ben Bernanke's statement in Kansas City, but most likely traders will not begin to sell seriously, and this week will end quietly.

And next week the market will wait for the whole block of significant news: expanded comments of FOMC last meeting, monthly data on employment in the USA and others.

Today we remain outside the market.

 

 

 

 

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