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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

11:47 06/01/2006

The American currency grew a little at yesterday's tenders.

Dollar strengthening against the basic currencies was promoted by the publication of Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, which data were above forecasts.

Chicago PMI in May rose up to 61.5 from April value 57.2.

It was expected that the given parameter would decrease to 56.2.

 

The American currency was also supported by data of the minutes of FOMC meeting from May, 10th.

 

According to the minutes of FOMC meeting, committee members are still uncertain concerning the further actions on rates.

In the minutes it is emphasized that committee members are seriously concerned by prospects of change of inflation rate.

 

Weak data on housing market of Great Britain, and also disappointing results of research of British consumers confidence have put pressure upon the pound.

These data dropped chances of an opportunity of rates increase by Bank of England the nearest months.

 

At the same time, the single European currency has got support from statements of ECB Governing Council Member Kvaden, and also economic data in Germany and as a whole in the Eurozone.

 

Data over Eurozone reflected growth of inflation and consumer confidence that increased chances that next week ECB will raise rates not by 25, but by 50 points.

 

Preliminary value of a consumer price index in Eurozone was up 2.5 % y/y in May against growth of 2.4 % in April.

 

The total index of moods in economy of the Eurozone in May raised up to 106.7 in comparison with 105.7 in April. Earlier it was informed that value of this parameter in April made 105.3.

Economists forecast reduction of the indicator to 105.1.

The indicator exceeded the forecast and reached a maximum level since April, 2001.

 

The indicator of a business climate in Eurozone went down to 1.06 in May against 1.16 in April.

 

Unemployment in Germany in May decreased as much as possible this year and adjusted for seasonal variations made -93000 against the previous value -40000. Economists forecast decrease of 20000.

Unemployment excluding seasonal variations in Germany for May made 10.8 %.

The previous value made 11.5 %.

 

The producer price index in France in April was up 0.6 % m/m and 3.6 % y/y.

Economists forecast that producer prices would grow 0.7 % and 3.6 % accordingly.

 

According to GFK review, the consumer’s confidence index in the UK for May made -5 at the forecast -4.

 

According to data of the review of the British confederation of manufacturers the retail sales index in May made +9 against +2 in April.

Analysts forecast drop in the given index to -4. The parameter was much better than the forecast and is the highest since December, 2004.

 

The consumer credit in the UK for April made +0.81 billion pounds at the forecast +0.90 billion pounds.

The previous value has been revised from  +0.28 up to +0.33 billion pounds.

 

Final value of money supply index ?4 in Great Britain for April made +1.3 % for a month, +13.1 % for a year that is in line with the forecast and the previous value.

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