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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Market expects FOMC decisions.

00:11 05/27/2006

Data on US GDP for 1 quarter 2006 have a little disappointed the market though they were issued upwardly against preliminary data for 1 quarter, published in April.

 

Growth of national economy made 5.3 %. The parameter exceeded both initial estimations of the government about growth of 4.8 %, and a weak parameter of the 4th quarter of 1.7 % when the economy overcame consequences of hurricane season.

 

Though the economy showed the maximal gain since 3 quarter, 2003 nevertheless value for 1 quarter was below economists’ forecasts, who forecast growth of 5.8 %, the reason of it became drop in consumer expenses in service sector and delay of investments into the equipment and the software.

 

Consumer expenses increased 5.2 % y/y against the initial estimation of 5.5 % and growth of 0.9 % in 4 quarter.

 

As data on incomes showed the annual rate of wage- push made $82.8 billion against the revised value $22.3 billion in 4 quarter. Earlier it was informed on wage-push on $67.8 billion in 4 quarter. Company increased replenishment of inventories up to $32.3 billion against an initial estimation of $21.9 billion and $37.9 billion in 4 quarter.

 

Corporate profits were up 7.9 % in 1 quarter against 14.4 % in 4 quarter and 23.8 % in annual calculation that became the maximal gain since 3 quarter, 2002. Export has been revised upwardly to +14.7 % from an initial estimation of 12.7 %. Import dipped to +12.8 % though it was estimated 13 % earlier.

 

Traders have reacted to this event by weak dollar sales.

 

Today the dollar got support after an issue of data on Personal Income and Consumption.

According to the data of Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce:

 

Personal incomes were up 0.5 % for a month, however consumer prices also grew 0.5 %. Real free incomes (adjusted concerning inflation and after tax payments) were down 0.1 %.

 

Real incomes per head decreased 0.2 %.

 

Consumer expenses grew 0.6 % nominally. Really (adjusted concerning inflation) expenses rose 0.1 % that means the weak beginning of the 4 quarter.

 

Core ??? excluding food and energy raised 0.2 % in April, as it was expected after growth of 0.3 % in March. Core inflation was up 2.1 % for last 12 months, the maximal growth since March 2005.

 

Consumer prices, including food and energy, were up 3.1 % last year against growth of 3.3 % in March.

 

As a whole the market situation remains neutral. Large market makers do not hurry up with opening of long-term positions before issue of FOMC decision about rates.

Let's remind that FOMC meeting will begin next week, on Wednesday on May, 31st.

While we remain outside the market.

 

 

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