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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Dollar’s rise proceeded, however it is necessary to consider it as no more than correction...

23:50 05/26/2006

So, on a background of varied economic data the market shows high volatility last days. The market intrigue was that on a background of speculation about possible transfer the assets in euro by some central banks.

 

Let's remind that the refined value of GDP index in the USA made +5.3 % for the first quarter 2006, at the forecast of +5.8 % and preliminary value of +4.8 %.

As a result though the parameter was below the forecast, however, at the same time, it reached a maximum level since the end of 2003.

We shall also remind that in the fourth quarter of the last year GDP growth of the USA made 1.7 % y/y and as a whole for 2005 it rose 3.5 %. Thus the primary factor, which affected revision of the parameter, in economists’ opinion, became increase of estimation of net export. Slightly puzzled by so high GDP value for the first quarter, experts ask a question - whether rates of growth will be kept in the second quarter.

The matter is that some analysts notice that economic indicators increase much more poorly than it was predicted. In their opinion, it can become the basis for a pause in increase of FRS rates.

 

Let's also remind that the jobless claims in the USA made 329 thousand for a week by May, 20th, at the forecast 329 thousand. And the previous value is revised from 367 thousand up to 369 thousand.

Let's notice that the average of claims, which is considered as more objective parameter as it is less subject to short-term fluctuations, has reached the top since the end of October, 2005, having risen from 325 thousand up to 337 thousand.

 

Another parameter, extremely important for experts in a current situation, existing home sales in the USA for April, at the forecast 6.60 million, made 6.76 million that was noticeably better than the forecast. And the previous value is revised from 6.92 up to 6.90 million.

And the help-wanted index in the USA made 35 for April, at the forecast 38. And the previous value has been revised from 38 up to 37. This indicator was much worse than the expected level.

 

Today's indicators also were varied. So, personal incomes index in the USA made +0.5 % for April, at the forecast of +0.7 % and the previous value of +0.5 %.

Thus personal expenses index in the USA made +0.6 % for April, at the forecast of +0.6 %, and the previous value of +0.5 %.

 

Thus final value of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the USA for May was almost at a level of forecasts. So value of the parameter made 79.1, at the forecast 79.0, and the previous value 79.0.

 

After all publications experts started to express concern that on a background of the high oil prices and increases of a level of FRS interest rate, reduction of expenses of population can begin, that as a result will affect a national economy.

Let's notice that the probability of the further growth of oil quotations is still rather high. It is promoted by instability of a situation on oil-fields of Nigeria, last initiatives of Presidents of Bolivia and Venezuela, and also a problem around the nuclear file of Iran which is the fourth world oil exporter.

Let's remind, that the Iranian leaders continue to insist on carrying out of bilateral negotiations with the USA while Washington insists on continuation of multilateral consultations.

 

As a result, taking into account the general situation, aggressive players should keep the dollar/franc purchases, opened on the eve. And already now the current profit should be secured by placing protective stop in "make-out" (1.2140). Thus after achievement of the key purpose (1.2360) these positions should be immediately closed, as current growth of pair should be considered as no more than correction after monthly drop earlier.

Conservative players should still remain outside the market, waiting for the end of current correction.

 

 

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