So, our assumptions were justified - on Friday a dollar exchange rate, becoming stronger, continued the correction and reached new depths of correction against the basic competitors. So, the dollar/franc rate practically reached the first purpose of correction at 1.2240, only process of positions closing before weekend prevented its further growth.

After growth to a mark 112.21, by closing of week session the dollar/yen rate decreased 111.70. And the euro/dollar after decline to a level 1.2694at the American session, on a background of profit-taking on "shorts", finished week at a mark 1.2777.

Let's remind that a positive background for dollar favorable correction became positive expectations of the next increase of FRS interest rate in FOMC meeting in June.

Many experts believe that the Federal Reserve, having disturbed by last inflationary data, will continue to firm the monetary policy to drop price pressure.

These moods were especially noticeably showed in the market of futures for the federal funds rate where players estimate probability of increase on 0,25 % at a level of 60 %on results of FOMC meeting on June, 29th.

The market’s participants have unexpectedly recollected that except for long felt for a month of a recoilless falling of technical correction in favor of dollar, there is also differential of rates between the USA and other countries.

The further development of correction in favor of the American currency now is restrained by expectations of ECB aggressive actions in a monetary policy. The majority of the market players forecast as rather high probability of increase of Bank of England rates.

Therefore refusal of ECB and BE hawkish steps will lead to strong disappointment and will for certain push the market to new dollar purchases against the European currencies, that as a result will lead rates to an even greater deepening of correction.

Let's also remind that dollar was supported a little by continuation of decline of the world oil and metals prices. So, on Friday the numerous funds, leaving the markets of precious metals, transferred means into the American currency.

Let's also notice that the market’s concentration on falling of oil and gold quotations has supported the dollar against raw currencies.

So, despite unexpectedly strong retail sales in Canada, which have essentially exceeded economists’ forecasts, the rate of canadian dollar could not receive significant support, having finished Friday session practically at levels of its opening.

Let's remind that retail sales for March in Canada, at the forecast of growth for 0,6 %, at once were up 1.5 % that became the greatest gain since July, 2005. It is remarkable that the increase in sales was observed practically in all sectors, however the absolute leader of sales was automobile sector of the Canadian economy, where growth of the indicator made 3.3 %

As a result, taking into account total negative to the American currency, and also uncertainty of structural problems of the first world economy, we suggest to consider last movements in the market exclusively as correction within the limits of the previous monthly drop in dollar.

The following purpose of correction of the dollar/franc rate will be a mark 1.2360 then dollar "bears" will make an attempt to renew downtrend.

Correction of dollar/canadian rate has not reached the purposes mentioned by us, however we do not exclude new attempts of growth of this pair.

Therefore conservative players should wait for the end of current correction and then open long-term dollar sales.

Though aggressive and short-term players have chances to fix profit on continuation of current correction with the purposes stated above, however we consider that such positions are fraught with high trading risks, and we do not recommend to open them.