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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Weak ZEW data over Germany and US housing market data poised each other.

12:42 05/17/2006

As well as it was supposed eurodollar quotations entered a viscous zone, the currency corridor, limited by levels 1,2800 .

 

Strong correction in oil market kept the dollar from the further falling.

The prices for June futures for light oil in NYMEX is kept below a mark $70 for barrel the second day. Yesterday oil prices were closed at a mark $69,45 for barrel. Oil traders keep a waiting position before the issue of the US Crude Inventories report, which takes place today.

 

Meanwhile, on a background of some stabilization of political conditions around Iran traders have again paid attention to fundamental economic releases.

 

Yesterday weak data both over the USA and EU poised each other.

 

At the beginning of the European session the euro was under pressure after an issue of weak statistical data of Institute of economic researches ZEW.

 

The business sentiment index has shown unexpectedly strong falling of 12,7 points to 50,0 points in May in comparison with 62,7 points in April, analysts did not expect so sharp falling, decrease in the index was predicted up to 60 points.

 

In experts’ opinion one of the reasons of such strong decline in business sentiment against the dollar for last month was euro strengthening and hike of oil prices at the end of April and the beginning of May. The German economy, focused on export, has additional loading of the increased expenses as the US export share makes significant part of all volume of German export.

 

ZEW President Wolfgang Frantz in his comments of the institute’s review noted that drop in optimism of business circles concerning German economy has been observed within last several months. Debate on the socially-focused economic reform, carried out by the new Government of Germany, which is directed to tax increase and minimum wage-push, does not add optimism to business sentiment.

 

After the publication of ZEW data the euro fell almost 100 points. However after the release of US housing market data quotations developed and in turn already the dollar tested serious pressure.

 

According to data of Department of Commerce housing starts in April reduced 7,4 %, having shown the third decrease successively, to an annual level of 1.849 million against 1.996 million. Building permits, a sign of the future construction, were down 5.4 % to an annual level of 1.984 million.

 

Such construction firms as "Hovnanian Enterprises Inc." reduce forecasts of sales volumes as stocks of unsold houses increase on higher prices and mortgage rates. In economists’ opinion construction of houses, a power source of economy for last five years, will limit rates of growth the nearest months.

 

According to director of a research department "Global Insight Inc." Nigel Golt reduction of existing constructions reflects that builders realize that the market is cooling. By the end of year house construction will take away its part from economic growth, probably, impressive enough.

 

Such serious cooling of housing market will be a serious argument for FRS decision-making on increase of federal funds rate. Experts consider this factor as one of arguments for FRS to leave the rate at a former level, at a level of 5 % per annum.

 

Technical picture.

The uptrend against the dollar has suspended its rise and has entered a correction stage. Today it is necessary to pay attention to an issue of Crude Inventories data in the USA, and tomorrow to Jobless claims report in the USA and the leading indicators.

While we remain outside the market.

 

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