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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Despite negative in publications dollar decline did not proceed

22:53 05/16/2006

So, yesterday process of profit taking on long-term dollar "shorts" proceeded at the American session. It is remarkable that net foreign purchases data did not prevent this process.

Investors of the American assets (TICS), which were below economists’ forecasts

also could cause new sales of the American currency.

Let's remind that according to the economists’ forecasts, varying from 70.0 billion

dollars up to 100.0 billion dollars, volume of purchases made 69.8 billion

dollars. Thus the previous value has been revised upwardly to 90.5 billion dollars.

 

Except for decrease in volume some experts have noticed several negative moments. So, analysts from French bank BNP Paribas specify that except for Great Britain all basic regions reduced their interest to the American assets. Experts remind that Great Britain is traditionally a center of accounts of the Middle East and usually investment interest of this region is realized through it

Region in the American actives.

 

In opinion of BNP Paribas analysts especially disturbing moment was growing demand for corporate bonds at a rate of 45.2 billion dollars.

Experts’ concern is caused by that growth of demand and increase of credit spread with developing markets is observed on a background of significant correction in developing markets. Such situation is fraught with strong correction in the market of corporate bonds.

 

The second dollar negative yesterday was the publication of NY Empire State Index in the USA for May, which made 12.4 at the forecast 17.0, and the previous value 15.8.

As a result, though all yesterday's data in the USA were unfavorable for the American currency, the dollar has not renewed the descending movement. It serves as an additional signal in favor of a deepening of correctional movement, started since the beginning of this week.

 

Experts point out that a good background for correction in favor of dollar is a proceeding total falling the prices for metals and other raw materials.

 

It is remarkable that the article in Financial Times where Governing Council member and Austria bank executive Claus Libsher stated that "strong euro represents less threats for economy of Eurozone than its hike particularly against US dollar, that sooner or later should lead to complaints in business circles", could not change a situation in the market in favour of the European currencies.

Besides Libsher noticed that last events in the currency market do not change ECB plans to raise interest rates the next month, probably, even at once by 0.5 %.

And though this article has been widely advertised in British press, the market’s reaction to it was rather short: the European currencies have slightly become stronger against the dollar at the beginning of the European session, and then have returned to initial levels.

 

Let's remind that today at 12:30 GMT the following data will be published:

- Producer prices index in the USA for April. The forecast +0.8 % for a month, and previous value was equaled +0.5 % for a month, +3.5 % for a year;

- Producer prices index except for food and energy prices in the USA for April. The forecast +0.2 % for a month, and previous value was equal to +0.1 % for a month, +1.7 % for a year;

- Housing starts in one million in the USA for April. The forecast 1.965, the previous value 1.960;

- Building permits in one million in the USA for April. The forecast 2.045, the previous value 2.059.

 

Later, at 13:15 GMT the publication is planned:

- Index of industrial production in the USA for April. The forecast +0.4 %, and the previous value +0.6 %;

- Capacity utilization in the USA for April. The forecast 81.5, the previous value 81.3.

 

Let's also remind that we expect development of the further correction, down to the levels mentioned by us (1.2360 - for dollar/franc, and 1.1280-95 – dollar/canadian). After achievement of the key purposes of correction, at formation of signals of the tendency’ change new long-term sales of rates become possible.

While it is necessary to wait for end of correction, being outside the market.

 

 

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