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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GDPUSD. On a background of drop in raw materials prices dollar strengthened.

12:50 05/16/2006

The dollar got good support on Friday, on a background of a positive on Trade balance of the USA yesterday the market continued to buy up the American currency actively. As a result correction made almost 200 points on results of two days.

 

A little bit weak Net Foreign Purchases data and business index of the US industries has not stopped the bulls.

 

According to the US Treasury Net Foreign Purchases decreased to $69.8 billion in March after they reached the revised value $90.5 billion in February.

Decrease happened basically on a background of sale of Treasury notes and the bill notes, bought by foreign investors. Net foreign purchases of long-term securities made $89.2 billion Private investors have bought $19.4 billion securities in March against $12 billion in February.

 

Despite significant reduction of investments in March net foreign purchases surpass deficit  of the foreign trade operations of the USA, which dipped to $62,0.

 

However details of the report were not so optimistical. Data showed that demand for the US assets slowly goes out. The foreign Central Banks for the first time for half of a year became net sellers of Treasury notes. The Central Banks of many large countries continue process diversification of their stocks, departing from an exclusive role in national dollar and assets reserves.

 

Activity in sector of a manufacturing industry of New York grew at the minimal rates in May as New York FRB has informed today. Empire State index decreased to 12.4 in May against 15.8 in April. It is a minimum level since June 2005. Dip was above the forecasts. Economists forecast drop in the index to 14.6. Despite the decline new orders have grown a little in May. Paid prices index has again raised, as well as the index of the forecast for the following 6 months. The employment index has moderately decreased.

 

The dollar was supported by a condition of the raw market, June futures for crude oil fell in the price $2.63, or 3.7 % to $69.41 for barrel that became a minimum level of closing since April, 7th. Earlier during the tenders oil observed the minimal intraday time level for a week of $69.35.

 

July futures for natural gas dipped 15.7 cents or 2.5 % to $6.123 for one million thermal units on closing. It is the lowest price of closing since February, 2005.

 

Negative moods concerning German economy, key economy of EU, have put pressure upon the euro:

German investors’ confidence will probably show decrease in May the fourth straight month as higher oil prices have lowered prospects of economic growth.

The center of European economic researches - ZEW will probably inform that its index of organizational and analytical expectations was down to 60 against 62.7 in April. The indicator goes down after has reached a two-year maximum at 71 in January. ZEW will publish the report today in the middle of the European session.

 

The rise in crude oil prices on 45 % for last year influences on the companies and consumers while dollar decline against euro makes the European export less competitive.

 

Recommendations are former while: to remain outside the market.

 

 

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