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Forex · News · USMarket

NEWS / USMarket

USmarket Key stock indexes keep down

11:47 05/15/2006

After two-days significant decrease Friday session also opened with falling of American shares.

 

Let's remind that the publication of the US trade balance data for March showed significant reduction of deficit.

Thus reduction of deficit is observed the second straight month and the size of deficit thus reached August level of the last year.

Experts connect decrease in deficiency with that the American companies began to export more raw material and the trading equipment.

 

Let's remind that at the forecast -67.3 billion dollars, value of the indicator for March made -62.0 billion dollars. And the previous value has been revised from -65.7 to -65.6 billion dollars.

Thus import reduced to $176.66 billion in March from $178.16 billion in February, export grew to $114.66 billion from $112.52 billion.

The import prices in April, 2006 rose 2.1 % in comparison with March; and the export prices for the same period grew 0.6 %. Both indicators were at enough high levels, and first of them became maximal since September, 2005.

Experts on the average expected a rise in export prices on 0.2 %, import - on 1.1 %. In March, according to earlier published data, the rise in export prices made 0.2 %, and data about the import prices were revised to decrease on 0.2 % from reduction on 0.4 %.

 

These data again reduced expectations of end of FRS firming cycle that has put pressure upon key indexes.

 

But other data, which were noticeably below forecasts, have opposite supported stock indexes. So, the consumers’ sentiment index in the USA for the May, 2006 calculated by University of Michigan, according to preliminary data, fell unexpectedly to 79 points in March from 87,4 points in April whereas experts assumed decrease at 86,0.

It is remarkable that the index of an estimation of current conditions decreased to 96.2 from 109.2, and the index of expectations - to 68.0 from 73.4.

 

Let's remind that the University of Michigan index is calculated monthly by results of poll of about 500 families.

The reason of sharp decline of the index became alarm of Americans because of a rise in petroleum prices and growth of credit cost. We shall remind that similar sharp decrease in the given parameter was caused by hurricanes Katherine and Rita in September of the last year.

 

As a result after the publication of University of Michigan index experts lowered probability of the next interest rates increase at June FOMC meeting. So the probability of this event decreased to a level of 38 %.

 

Growth of key indexes is supported by a situation in oil market. We shall remind that in spite of the fact that experts at Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty raised their long-term forecast of oil prices for 33 % from 30 dollars for barrel to 40 dollars for barrel, however investors today wait for the further drop in prices.

As a result Goldman Sachs Group analysts suppose that, finally, oil will return to the balanced price, within the limits of $30-40 for barrel.

 

As a result Dow-Jones index of New York stock exchange fell 119.74 points and was closed at a level of 11380.99. NASDAQ index dipped 28.92 points and is at a level 2243.78. S&P 500 index dropped 14.68 points and is at a level 1291.24.

And 30-year US Treasury notes yield grew 0.071 in comparison with the previous closing and makes 5.298.

 

We recommend to wait for the further reduction of key share indexes. Only after end of this correction there are possible new purchases of futures for Dow-Jones and S&P 500 indexes.

While it is necessary to keep a waiting position.

 

 

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